This Nick Chubb Over Is The NFL Prop To Bet For Browns vs. Giants On SNF

This Nick Chubb Over Is The NFL Prop To Bet For Browns vs. Giants On SNF article feature image
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Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Chubb

NFL Prop Bets

Pick
Bet Now 
Nick Chubb Over 73.5 Rush Yards (-120)
BetMGM

There’s nothing imposing about Chubb’s matchup against the Giants. New York has a league-average run defense, ranking 14th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

But Chubb is anything but average — he’s one of the best pure runners in football, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s playing behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. The Browns also run the ball at the third-highest rate.

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NFL NextGenStats has a metric that measures how many rushing yards a ball-carrier is expected to gain based on the location/speed direction of blockers and defenders. Well, in Chubb’s three NFL seasons, he finished second and third before taking over first (by a mile) in Rush Yards Over Expected per attempt this season.

As 6.5-point favorites (check real-time odds), this is a prime spot to expect a max workload for Chubb:

  • Games won between 1-10 points (5): 118 rush yards
  • Games lost or won by 10-plus points (4): 74 rush yards

I would bet this up to 79.5 yards, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Yards
Over
Under
73.5
57.9%
42.1%
74.5
57.1%
42.9%
75.5
56.3%
43.7%
76.5
55.5%
44.5%
77.5
54.7%
45.3%
78.5
53.9%
46.1%
79.5
53.1%
46.9%
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