Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings: Lamar Jackson & Frank Gore
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills running back Frank Gore
- Matthew Freedman highlights his two favorite Week 14 NFL prop bets available on DraftKings.
- You'll find his picks for the over/unders on Lamar Jackson's passing touchdowns and Frank Gore's rushing yards below.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 14 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 286-174-9 (+67.9) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: +175
- Under 1.5: -225
The Bills have allowed just nine passing touchdowns this year. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer.
The Bills are No. 3 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus). They have a very good pass defense, and I believe the Ravens will struggle to move the ball against them through the air.
But the Bills are exploitable on the ground: They rank No. 22 against the run in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
And that’s a problem for them, because the Ravens are No. 1 in the league with 445 running plays and a 55.1% rush rate. They run more than other teams. They’re also No. 1 with 5.6 yards per carry and a 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats). They run more efficiently than other teams.
So even though the Ravens might not get a lot of passing yards, I still think they’ll be able to move the ball and get in position to score touchdowns.
And if they have multiple trips inside the red zone, I can see how quarterback Lamar Jackson gets a couple of short passing touchdowns.
In six of 12 games, Jackson has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns, and in the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Jackson projected for 1.47 passing touchdowns, so this really looks like a coin flip.
If you give me +175 odds, I’ll bet on heads every time.
Pick: Over 1.5 (+175) [In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Bills RB Frank Gore Rushing Yards
- Over 22.5: -112
- Under 22.5: -112
The Ravens have a funnel defense that ranks No. 3 against the pass but No. 25 against the run in DVOA.
And since they created the three-headed cornerback monster of Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens have been incredibly hard to attack via the air.
So I expect the Bills will lean on the running game, which means that Gore could see extra work. And even if he sees just his usual allotment of carries, that might be enough to get him to the over.
Since teammate Devin Singletary assumed the leading role in Week 8, Gore has averaged 27.3 yards rushing on 10 carries per game.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Gore projected for 29.4 rushing yards.
Pick: Over 22.5 (-112) [In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 14, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.