Week 4 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: 14 Player Props To Bet On Sunday
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Miller
NFL player prop bets can offer a ton of value. I’ve identified 14 that are offering value for Sunday’s main slate based on my Week 4 player projections.
Let’s jump right in.
Week 4 NFL Prop Bets
Click on a game to skip ahead.
Ravens at Washington Props
Marquise Brown Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
I was surprised to see Brown’s number this low as I would have set it closer to 52.5.
Brown is a very volatile player, so a 10-yard difference between my projection and this line isn’t going to provide as much value as it would for other wide receivers. However, I think Lamar Jackson comes out aggressive to start this game after the Ravens’ 14-point loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. I could see Marquise clearing this number by halftime as a result.
Bet up to: 46.5 yards
Mark Ingram Under 55.5 Rush Yards (-114) [Bet now at FanDuel]
The Ravens will limit Ingram in the fourth quarter if this is a blowout. Considering the Ravens are 14-point road favorites against Washington (find real-time odds here), we’ll likely see Gus Edwards close out the game in the fourth.
It will be tough for Ingram to eclipse this number with 10-12 carries.
Chargers at Buccaneers Props
Justin Herbert Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-157) [Bet now at DraftKings]
The Chargers will be without three starting offensive linemen. It’s not good news for Herbert, who is going up against the Bucs and their stout defensive line. Herbert has yet to throw for two or more touchdowns in his young career, and I don’t see him doing so here.
Bet the juice to: -170
Browns at Cowboys Props
Amari Cooper Under 81.5 Rec Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Cooper is off to a hot start in 2020 with receiving totals of 81, 100 and 86 over the first three weeks. But while those numbers are impressive, let’s put them into context: The Cowboys have averaged 396 passing yards a game, which is unsustainable, especially when you consider the fact they have had the ball for 1 minute and 12 seconds with the lead so far this season.
As 3.5-point home favorites, we can expect the Cowboys to play with the lead at a much higher rate, which will allow them to feed Ezekiel Elliott in the running game and possibly spread the ball around a bit more.
Bet down to: 77.5 yards
Cardinals at Panthers Props
Teddy Bridgewater Under 13.5 Rush Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Bridgewater has started nine games dating back to last season, and he’s cleared 13.5 rushing yards in just one of them.
Bridgewater was a rushing threat earlier in his career, but after his career-threatening leg injury, he’s opted to be a pure pocket passer. He’s flashed his rushing upside on a couple of scrambles, but I’m willing to take the value here.
Bet down to: 12.5 yards
Mike Davis Under 54.5 Rush Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Davis’ rushing prop is way too high.
The Panthers have been using dump-off passes to Davis as an extension of the run game, therefore I don’t see him getting more than 11-13 carries in this game. The Panthers played with the lead for much of Week 3, and Davis still finished with only 46 yards on the ground. He isn’t talented enough to overcome Carolina’s offensive line issues and clear this number.
Bet down to: 49.5 yards
Vikings at Texans Props
Justin Jefferson Over 48.5 Rec Yards (-118) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Jefferson is officially the No. 2 wide receiver for the Vikings after a breakout performance with 7 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown game in Week 3. And we still get to buy low on him at this price as it should be closer to 55.5.
Jaguars at Bengals Props
Drew Sample Over 2.5 Receptions (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Sample flopped with a 1/1/0 line in his first career start in Week 3. While his stat line was ugly, it was encouraging to see him run a route on 65% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks. Sample should average closer to 3-3.5 receptions with that kind of usage, so let’s take advantage of the bit of value offered here.
Giants at Rams Props
The Rams’ pass rate falls to 42% with a lead this season (seventh lowest). It’s why we should target Goff’s under 282.5 pass yards here, considering the Rams are massive 13.5-point favorites.
The rushing prop is this high simply because he has a few games with 10 or more yards, but Goff has never been a threat with his legs and cleared 8.5 yards only twice last year. Even if he gets to 9 yards at some point, he’s likely to see a few kneel-downs at the end of the game for a backdoor cover on this prop.
Bet the pass yards down to: 277.5
Bet the rush yards down to: 7.5
We’re going back to the well on Higbee unders. Last week, his routes run per dropback dipped to 40%, just ahead of Gerald Everett’s 34% rate. It’s a significant concern for Higbee’s long-term fantasy value.
Let’s take advantage of the inflated numbers while we still can.
Colts at Bears Props
Anthony Miller Over 24.5 Rec Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Miller is due for some positive regression in catch percentage as he’s currently second-worst with 43% (last season he was 61%). The Bears handing starting duties over to Nick Foles should help. It’s also encouraging to see Miller’s routes run per dropback jump up to 65% a week ago.
Bills at Raiders Props
Derek Carr Under 273.5 Pass Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
The Raiders will be without starting wideouts Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards this week. And to make matters worse, they’ll also be without starting O-linemen Richie Incognito and Trent Brown. So why on Earth are most books currently offering Carr at greater than 270?! This is one of those props I had to do a double-take on.
Carr’s starting WRs will be Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones. I expect Carr to target Darren Waller heavily, but the Bills are likely to watch the Patriots’ film on how to slow the tight end down.
This is one of my favorite props of the day, considering I would set the line at 258.5.
Bet down to: 265.5 yards