The NFL season enters Week 6, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for Cowboys vs Panthers, Browns vs Steelers, Cardinals vs Colts, Titans vs Raiders, Patriots vs Saints and more.
Let's get into my Week 6 player props.
Week 6 NFL Prop Bets
- Cam Ward Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-128; FanDuel)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM)
- DeAndre Hopkins Under 1.5 Receptions (-125; BetMGM)
- Devaughn Vele Anytime Touchdown (+1700; FanDuel); Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-118; BetMGM)
- Jonnu Smith Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- Bryce Young Under 213.5 Pass Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- Elijah Arroyo Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
Cam Ward Pass Attempts
There are a handful of reasons why I’m projecting this Cam Ward prop closer to 30.5 attempts, with around a 64% chance to stay under.
First, the Titans have trailed on a league-high 76% of their snaps. Even last week's win over the Cardinals was an extreme pass-heavy, comeback fueled rally.
They have actually been a very run heavy offense, so a closer game script or even the decent chance they play with a lead at some point in this game could lead to a much higher run rate.
Titans QB coach Bo Hardegree has been calling the plays the last two weeks and has been much more run heavy than Brian Callahan was over the first three games.
Hardegree has been much more willing to run on second and long, which would go a long way for this prop if he continues that trend.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Receiving Yards
I'm projecting Marvin Harrison Jr.'s median closer to 61.5 yards with around a 59% chance to clear 52.5 (he has a wide range of outcomes).
The Cardinals have a +31% expected trail rate against the Colts and it’s not quite “Monty back in Cincy” level projections boost, but Harrison will be playing where his father played for his entire HOF career for the first time.
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions
This has an A+ grade in our prop tool.
The market is all over the place on this and I’m much more in line with FanDuel, closer to -190 for this.
If you have access to this price (DK at -137 is also in play), it’s worth putting more than 1u on it (again, I’m sticking with flat 0.5u bets for tracking purposes simply because I’m increasing my volume of plays for Week 6).
Devaughn Vele Anytime Touchdown; Receiving Yards
This anytime touchdown pick is one of the top edges in our ATD prop tool — just an absolutely ridiculous price for a WR who is coming off a season-high snap rate (Devaughn Vele was traded right before the season started to NO) and looks to be eating into Brandin Cooks’ role with the Saints, who are potentially in “evaluate for 2026 and beyond” mode.
Vele is a big-bodied receiver who should be one of the top end-zone targets for Spencer Rattler. I project this closer to +800.
I added Vele to go over his receiving yards total. He has a wide range of outcomes, but I have his median closer to 6.5 yards.
There is a 36% chance he doesn’t catch a pass, a 2% chance he catches a pass but stays under 3.5 (hopefully would be for a TD), and around a 60% chance he clears 3.5 yards.
Jonnu Smith Longest Reception
Back in Week 2, I identified this being the ideal market to fade Jonnu Smith.
Sure enough, he hauled in a 21-yard catch that week (because of course he did) — but he has yet to have a 10+ yard catch since.
Smith's seeing most of his targets around the line of scrimmage (0.5 aDot) so he has to get most of his yards after the catch. He gets an even bigger hit against the Browns' heavy man usage (1st) as his routes run rate drops over a full yard vs. man.
I have this closer to 12.5-13, with around a 60% chance he stays under 14.5.
Elijah Arroyo Receiving Yards
I have Elijah Arroyo's median closer to 16 with around a 59% chance to clear 12.5.
If/when his prop gets closer to 15.5, I would pivot to his alt overs to tap into his upside vs. his median prop.
Arroyo's just missed on a couple big plays in his limited role so far, but he carries more upside than your typical backup TE.
He gives me former “backup TE” Aaron Hernandez vibes (talent-wise, not personality).
Bryce Young Pass Yards
The weather report for this game has gotten significantly worse and we are close enough to kickoff to feel pretty confident there will be showers at times and high winds (20+ mph).
I'm starting to see markets adjust and I think Young’s pass yards prop should see the biggest hit due to the weather.
He’s getting a big boost due to Dallas' 32nd-ranked pass DVOA, but this is a game where the Panthers will be able to lean on the run and keep things close.
I'm projecting him closer to 195.5 yards based on the recent weather forecast.
Koerner's Week 6 Prop Card
- Cam Ward Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-128; FanDuel)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM)
- DeAndre Hopkins Under 1.5 Receptions (-125; BetMGM)
- Devaughn Vele Anytime Touchdown (+1700; FanDuel); Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-118; BetMGM)
- Jonnu Smith Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- Bryce Young Under 213.5 Pass Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- Elijah Arroyo Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
