NFL Prop Picks For Monday Night Football: Aaron Rodgers & More PrizePicks Plays For Lions vs. Packers
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Packers’ Randall Cobb (left) and Aaron Rodgers (right).
When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I’ll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean’s projections.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Aaron Rodgers Over 7.5 Rushing Yards
Sean projects Rodgers’ rushing total at 11 yards, more than 46% higher than this Prize Picks line.
Rodgers’ mobility is one of his best attributes, and his elite passing ability always opens running lanes on situations such as third-and-long. Last season, Rodgers hit this prop in nine of his 16 games.
Over the last five years, Rodgers averages 12.98 rushing yards per game, and 14.5 yards in home contests. In 2020, no team allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than Detroit. Even with a coaching change, I expect the Packers to have little trouble posting points against the Lions.
In a game with a solid 48.5 point total, I expect the Packers to be firing on all cylinders in their home opener. This includes Rodgers providing his usual rushing production at Lambeau Field.
FantasyLabs’ Props Tool Grade: 7 out of 10
Randall Cobb Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Green Bay’s offense will want to bounce back in the worst way after that horrific showing against New Orleans in Week 1. I expect the Packers’ passing attack to be clicking on all cylinders, providing plenty of opportunity for Cobb to beat this ridiculously low receiving yardage prop.
Rodgers personally lobbied for management to bring Cobb back to Green Bay, revealing his preference for the 31-year-old veteran. Even with just one reception last week, Cobb tallied 32 receiving yards, more than double this threshold.
Over the course of his Green Bay career, Cobb has averaged 6.7 targets, 4.8 receptions and 58.7 receiving yards per game with Rodgers. Detroit was dominated in Week 1 by San Francisco wideout Deebo Samuel, who torched the Lions secondary for nine receptions and 189 receiving yards.
We project this total at 20.6 yards, almost 33% above the target value. Given the connection between Rodgers and Cobb, this prop could be reached with one reception in the first half.
FantasyLabs’ Props Tool Grade: 8 out of 10
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 36.5 Receiving Yards
The one offensive player who failed to perform for the Saints in Week 1 was wide receiver Marquez Callaway, who totaled one reception for just 14 yards on two targets. That is a direct result of the Packers’ elite cornerback Jaire Alexander, who should limit St. Brown’s production.
The Lions are so thin at wide receiver, their leading passing game producers in Week 1 were tight end T.J. Hockenson and both running backs (D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams).
St. Brown was a fourth-round pick who produced just two receptions for 23 yards in his NFL debut against the 49ers, a game the Lions substantially trailed throughout. Now they go on the road to a division rival, with an elite shutdown cornerback, coming off an embarrassing loss. If the Lions keep this game close, it will be a direct result of the running backs and Hockenson. I’ll take a chance that the 5-foot-11 rookie wideout with only 4.66 speed beats this number.
We project Brown for 30.1 receiving yards, 17.5% below this total.
FantasyLabs’ Props Tool Grade: 9 out of 10