NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks (Sunday, Week 17)
Getty Images. Pictured: Gerald Everett.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks (Sunday, Week 17)
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
I’ve now bet Isaiah Likely for three straight weeks and if sportsbooks keep pricing him at +250 or better, I’m happy to keep the streak going. He didn’t score against the 49ers last week, but he was a factor in the red zone and held enough attention for speedy WR Zay Flowers to score. Now, the Dolphins excel on the outside but also struggle to stop slot receivers, ranking in the bottom five in TDs allowed to that position. At +210 and +250, both Flowers and Likely make my list.
For the Dolphins, I wouldn’t necessarily say WR Tyreek Hill is a “lock” to score on the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL, but he’s nearly matchup-proof. I was shocked to see he opened at +120 since he hasn’t been plus odds since Week 2 (he scored). These two teams played last season in Week 2, and he went off for 11 catches and two touchdowns.
Verdict: Bet Zay Flowers +210 (FanDuel), Isaiah Likely +250 (bet365) & Tyreek Hill +120 (bet365)
QB C.J. Stroud is finally back this week and that means all Texans pass-catchers get a boost. WR1 Nico Collins feels like a solid bet to score but at +150, I’d rather look at another prominent pass-catcher in TE Dalton Schultz at +225. He’s gotten 16 targets in the last two games and has five TDs this season. Once you get past Schultz on the ATD board, it’s slim pickings for Texans TDs.
For the Titans, you have to just keep betting on WR DeAndre Hopkins. He’s +200 and returning to where he started his career. Now, he’s gone three straight games without a TD but has been still getting volume with 33 targets in that span. With Will Levis expected back this week, Hopkins should see his regular targets and looks in the end zone.
Verdict: Bet DeAndre Hopkins +200 (FanDuel) & Dalton Schultz +210 (FanDuel)
In three games with QB Bailey Zappe in as the starter, nothing has really stood out offensively for the Patriots other than they will rely on RB Ezekiel Elliot in the red zone. With 11 red-zone touches over the last three games (team lead), it’s hard to justify betting anyone else in this offense except for TE Hunter Henry, who's banged up with a knee injury.
As for the Bills, it’s tough to find value because the Patriots defense does one thing well, and that’s take away the top option. Ranking No.2 in DVOA against opposing WR1, it could be a tough sled for WR Stefon Diggs but he hasn’t scored in three games and is upwards of +160 to score a touchdown. Even with the tough matchup, I’d rather bank on Diggs than Gabe Davis, who has struggled against man coverage this season with no touchdowns facing that coverage.
Verdict: Bet Ezekiel Elliot +200 (Fanatics) & Stefon Diggs +150 (Caesars)
I feel like I keep defaulting to TEs but when it comes to the Giants offense, I’m only looking at two players: TE Darren Waller or QB Tyrod Taylor. Waller has been getting targets and, of course, dropped a TD last week against the Eagles. He’s down to +300, so this is a decent spot to look at facing the Rams, who rank 24th in DVOA against TE with eight touchdowns allowed to the position. But another spot where L.A. has been vulnerable has been against QBs with five rushing TDs allowed. Barring injury, I’d side with Taylor in this spot at +450. He’s pretty careful with limiting turnovers and showed last week that if the look in the passing game isn’t there, he’ll take off and run.
If you’re betting Rams TD scorers, shop around and make sure you get the best odds for WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. They’re minus odds at some sportsbooks but as high as +140 at others. Both are in for prime matchups facing a Giants defense that plays man coverage at a high rate, and both WRs excel against that coverage. Go with Kupp if you have to pick between the two since he should’ve had three touchdowns last week if it wasn’t for errant throws from QB Matthew Stafford.
Verdict: Bet Tyrod Taylor +450 (bet365) & Cooper Kupp +120 (bet365)
If someone asked you for the perfect “Brandon Aiyuk” matchup in 2023, this is it. The Commanders rank last in DVOA against the pass, 30th in DVOA against the deep pass and play man coverage at a top-10 rate. Well, Aiyuk thrives against man coverage and has the highest average depth of target on the 49ers. There’s a reason Aiyuk is +120 to score this week despite going three straight games without a TD.
Speedy slot receivers continue to thrive against this Niners defense. Zay Flowers got into the end zone last week along with the likes of Tyler Boyd, Jordan Addison and Mike Evans, each of whom scored against San Francisco when lining up in the slot. The main Commanders receiver this applies to Curtis Samuel at +400. He’s scored five TDs this season and, for what it’s worth, scored against the Niners when they played last year. He has 18 red-zone touches this season and should have some opportunities to get in the end zone with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
Verdict: Bet Brandon Aiyuk +120 (BetMGM) & Curtis Samuel +400 (bet365)
We don’t need to dive into how bad the Cardinals have been this season but the ATD odds for Kyler Murray are a bit out of control. I get that the Eagles defensive line is a handful, but this is still one of the fastest players in the NFL and has three rushing touchdowns in six games since returning from injury. Even against the 49ers, he only had +300 odds and had a red-zone carry before RB James Conner eventually scored. I had expected odds at +300 so I'll bet +350.
With the Eagles, I’d go with Dallas Goedert. He’s seen back-to-back nine-target weeks, and the Cardinals are 30th in DVOA against opposing TEs with six touchdowns allowed to the position. I wouldn’t invest in too many Eagles pass-catchers since this game could be a blowout that would see Philly milk the clock and run the ball.
Verdict: Bet Kyler Murray +350 (Fanatics) & Dallas Goedert +270 (FanDuel)
If I told you that Mike Evans TD at +120 doesn’t hold a lot of value, would it even matter anymore? The 10th-year veteran continues to see his ATD odds drop every week after scoring and despite defenses knowing QB Baker Mayfield is going to target him down the field, he still gets open to score. So, why fight it? He leads the NFL in receiving TDs and catches of 20 or more yards.
It gets tricky when you bet the Saints because then you’re trusting your money with QB Derek Carr, and it's frustrating to watch a QB throw short of the sticks on third down almost every time. It's not like the Bucs secondary is impenetrable but instead of the WRs, let’s get back to Juwan Johnson. He’s scored in each of the last two weeks and the Bucs rank in the bottom five in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to TE this season.
Verdict: Bet Mike Evans +125 (FanDuel) & Juwan Johnson +500 (FanDuel)
If the Jaguars are smart, they won't let QB Trevor Lawrence throw more than 20 times and lean heavily on RBs Travis Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson. The Panthers are last in the NFL in TDs allowed to RB and although they've given up five touchdowns to WR over the last two games, they’ve only allowed 11 total touchdowns to WR this year. With Etienne at -120, Johnson at +450 and Lawrence at +375, I’d rather just bank on a potential garbage-time TD with Johnson.
Speaking of long shots, it’s Tommy Tremble Time again at +650. The Jaguars are low-key awful at defending TEs and rank in the bottom 10 in targets, yards and TDs to the position. Tremble has made me a lot of money this season and has emerged at TE1 in this offense now, playing over 70% of snaps.
Verdict: Bet D’Ernest Johnson +550 (DraftKings) & Tommy Tremble +700 (FanDuel)
I’ve bet Justin Fields now in back-to-back weeks and was able to get one last week against the Cardinals at +170. Now, he’s back up to +195 against the Falcons and facing a defense that has given up five touchdowns to QB this season (bottom five). Atlanta is strong against the run this season, but Fields is a different kind of problem than someone like RB Jonathan Taylor, who also scored last week on the Falcons.
I’ve had too much pain through 16 weeks to endure two more of it chasing Falcons Anytime TD bets. The week you think it's Bijan Robinson’s turn, RB2 Tyler Allgeier gets the lion's share of carries. Facing a defense that struggles against WRs? It’s TE Kyle Pitts’ turn to score. I, along with many others, can’t seem to figure out this offense, so I’m done trying.
Verdict: Bet Justin Fields +210 (BetMGM), pass on Falcons TD Scorers
Facing the team that plays the most zone coverage in the NFL, the natural instinct is to turn to WR Davante Adams for Las Vegas, but I’d rather have WR Jakobi Meyers. He hasn’t scored any TDs against zone coverage this season but his volume/target share, yards per route run and first-read percentage all go through the roof against that kind of defense than against man coverage. If you want to take Adams at +180, I wouldn't blame you, but I’d rather side with Meyers at +300.
Both of these teams are in the top half of Defensive DVOA against the pass. Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has done the best against zone coverage, which the Raiders play the most of, but he’s down to +145 and with only four TDs, the consistency isn’t there to feel great playing his ATD prop.
Verdict: Bet Jakobi Meyers +270 (Fanatics)
It feels like the WR TD gets traded around whenever there’s a QB change in Pittsburgh with WR Diontae Johnson thriving with Mitch Trubisky, George Pickens doing well with Mason Rudolph and Pat Freiermuth with Kenny Pickett. It was Pickens' turn last week, but that was against the Bengals, who play mostly man coverage. This time, it’s the Seahawks who mainly play zone. If that’s the case, I gotta go back to WR Diontae Johnson at +275. He’s got a higher target share against zone and when the Steelers faced the Colts two weeks ago (No. 1 zone team in the NFL), it was Johnson who scored the TD. It's also worth noting that the Seahawks run defense is a turnstile and has allowed the fourth-most rushing TDs in the NFL (20).
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba may not have had the standout rookie seasons like some of his contemporaries but one thing he excels at is beating man coverage. The Seahawks play Man coverage at a top-seven rate and JSN averages the highest targetshare and has two of his touchdowns this season against that type of defense. WR DK Metcalf at +160 is a solid option, too, but rather take a swing on the rookie.
Verdict: Bet Diontae Johnson +275 (bet365) & Jaxon Smith-Njigba +280 (DraftKings)
Everyone will be telling their grandchildren about how they watched Easton Stick take on Jarrett Stidham in a classic AFC West battle. Sarcasm aside, this game isn’t great for TD scorers.
The one positive for Stidham is knowing he gets to face the Chargers secondary, which ranks in bottom five in nearly every opposing receiving category. Maybe this is WR Jerry Jeudy’s week to finally shine as he’s done much better against zone coverage, which the Chargers play at a top-10 rate. It’s not a great price at +225, but you know he’ll be playing at least 80% of snaps. If you’re looking for a dart throw, Stidham to score at +550 is sneaky considering he rushed for 84 yards in two starts last season.
The Broncos can’t stop tight ends all this season. They’ve given up 10 touchdowns to the position and rank last in DVOA against TEs. This means we need to go back to TE Gerald Everett. He has led the Chargers in targets since Stick took over at QB, and it’s been an auto-bet to take the opposing TE.
Verdict: Bet Jerry Jeudy +225 (Caesars) & Gerald Everett +295 (DraftKings); sprinkle on Jarrett Stidham +600 (Fanatics)
The “Chiefs Premium” for TD scorers isn’t all the way gone, but we’re starting to see the tide turn. For example, TE Travis Kelce routinely had minus odds to score but now has had plus-odds in each of the last two weeks. Despite their recent struggles, the top-four options to score in this game all are on the K.C. side and each has odds below +200. Gross. That’s why if I’m betting a Chief to score, I’m going with WR Justin Watson at +400. He’s caught a touchdown in three of the last five games and sees his receiving metrics like yards per route run, target rate and average depth of target all go through the roof.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins has done the best this season against man coverage, and that’s what the Chiefs play the most of (fifth-highest rate). However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that K.C. ranks seventh in total passing TDs allowed and ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass. It’s an uphill battle on that front for the Bengals to score. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one, so I’d rather just bank on someone like WR Tyler Boyd at +300.
Verdict: Bet Justin Watson +390 (DraftKings) & lean Tyler Boyd +475 (Fanatics)
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