Every NFL Team’s 2019 Record In 1-Score Games

Records in one-score games is one of nine metrics our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, weighs in his NFL Luck Ratings.

The Seattle Seahawks are NFL Twitter’s favorite example of a “lucky” team in this regard. They went 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points in 2019 en route to an 11-5 season. So hypothetically if the Seahawks would have been on the other end of “luck” in those one-score games, flipping their record to 2-9, their overall record would have been 4-12.

That’s a seven-win swing.

The inverse example would be the Los Angeles Chargers, who did actually go 2-9 in one-score games last season. By applying the same hypothetical exercise, had the Chargers instead gone 9-2 in one-score games, it would have flipped their overall record from 5-11 to 12-4.

Of course, luck impacts these records. So this doesn’t mean that the Seahawks were only a four-win team of the Chargers were actually a 12-win team.

Generally, we should expect teams to regress toward a .500 record in one-score games the next season — whether they had “good” or “bad” luck the season prior.

All that said, here’s how every team fared in games decided by seven or fewer points in 2019.

NFL Team Records In One-Score Games