NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Patriots-Titans, Two Other Week 10 Games
Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8).
- Sharps are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by New England Patriots-Tennessee Titans (1:00 p.m. ET)
- Wiseguys are also getting down on New Orleans Saints-Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET) and Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET)
It’s been pretty rough for sharps and sportsbooks lately in the NFL. Over the first five weeks of the season, teams getting less than 50% of bets went 46-29 ATS (61.3%).
Since Week 6, however, they’ve gone an abysmal 17-37 ATS (31.5%). The public is crushing. But wiseguys are standing firm. They know regression is inevitable.
Here are the three games they’re focusing on the most.
>> All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
- Sharp angle: Titans (+7)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
This might be the favorite wiseguy play of Week 10.
The Patriots (7-2) opened as a 7-point road favorite. Currently 85% of spread bets are laying the points with Brady and Belichick, making it the most public play of the day. However, despite the overwhelming public support, the line has either remained frozen at -7 or even fallen to -6.5 at some books. This indicates heavy liability on the Titans (4-4).
Pros at CRIS, Pinnacle, BetOnline, BetUs, Sportsbook and SBG all got down hard on Tennessee +7, triggering seven different steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting bet signal on New England.
The Titans are only getting 16% of bets, which means they fit the Sports Insights 80/20 Rule. Since 2003, teams getting 20% or less bets have gone 55.3% ATS.
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
- Sharp angle: Bengals (+5.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Saints (7-1) are riding high, having just knocked off the undefeated Rams in Week 9. The public sees an unstoppable juggernaut, but sharps are eyeing a let-down spot for a red-hot dome team traveling outdoors.
New Orleans opened as a four-point road favorite. Heavy public betting (72% of bets) pushed the Saints from -4 to -6. That’s when sharp Bengals (5-3) buyback hit the market.
Pros at Pinnacle, 5Dimes and SBG all got down hard on Cincinnati, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. The line has since dropped back down to CIN +5.5.
This is the most heavily bet game on Sunday, which gives the Bengals great contrarian value. Also, Cincy is only getting 28% bets but 40% dollars– further evidence of smart money grabbing the points.
Two added bonuses for wiseguys Bengals backers: Cincy is coming off a bye. Since 2003, teams coming off the bye have gone 53.4% ATS. Tony Corrente is also the lead ref. Home teams have covered 52.6% of the time with Corrente as the head ump.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
- Sharp angle: Raiders (+10)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Two teams trending in completely opposite directions.
The Chargers (6-2) have won five straight. Meanwhile, the Raiders (1-7) have lost four straight and just got blown out 34-3 against the 49ers.
The public couldn’t be higher on the Chargers or lower on the Raiders. But sharps know that these buy low, sell high spots offer rare, unique value.
Los Angeles opened as a ten-point road favorite. Currently 82% of bets are laying the points with Philip Rivers, yet the line hasn’t budged off of -10. In fact, it’s briefly dipped to -9.5 throughout the week. This signals smart money on Gruden’s Grinders, with sportsbooks reluctant to hand out the crucial +10.5 hook to wiseguys.
Sharps at Heritage, BetOnline, ABC, GTBets, Orleans and Bovada all crushed OAK +10. We haven’t seen any conflicting moves on LAC.
The Raiders are only getting 18% bets but 47% dollars, further evidence of sharp action. Oakland also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Bet Against the Public After Bad Game (61.3% ATS since 2005).