NFL Week 1 is here!
Two games are already in the books, but it's time for our first NFL Sunday.
We already ranked every NFL team at every position, picked every win total, and grabbed a future or three for every NFL team. You can read all of that here and get those final futures positions in or see what I think about these teams entering the new season — but today it's time to make real picks on actual games.
No more introduction needed — let's get right to my NFL Week 1 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 1 Predictions
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Giants vs Commanders
If you asked me to guess which team I'd place my first bet of the season on this preseason, it might have taken me 15 or 20 guesses to get to the Giants, but here we are.
The history of this rivalry is close. Even last year, when the Commanders won 12 games, they beat the terrible Giants by just five and three points. In fact, Washington has won only four of the last 13 games against the Giants. That includes a one-point win, which means the Commanders have only covered this spread once in 13 games against New York.
I'm honestly not sure if either team is good.
Jayden Daniels was brilliant as a rookie; he has to do it all over again with defenses prepared for him this time around, and what are Washington's other strengths? Linebacker? Anything else?
The Giants are loaded on the defensive front with Dexter Lawrence surrounded by Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter, and that unit should be a huge factor against a Commanders line in flux.
Washington will start two new tackles, Laremy Tunsil on the left and rookie Josh Conerly Jr. on the right. The Commanders are still missing G Sam Cosmi as well.
Why is this nearly a touchdown spread?
Washington's offense is good but not great; the Giants defense may rank just as high. New York's offense doesn't look good, but neither does Washington's defense.
I love this spot for the Giants — and that was all before I checked out BetLabs and found an absolute trends bonanza. It's a 13-0 trends shutout for the G-Men!
Some of my favorites:
- Week 1 road underdogs that missed last year's playoffs since 2011: 61-36-2 ATS (63%)
- Week 1 divisional underdogs since 2015: 33-17-1 ATS (66%)
- Week 1 teams that missed the playoffs against division opponents that made it: 41-15-1 ATS (73%)
- Russell Wilson: 65% ATS for his career as an underdog, including 71% in the division
- Dan Quinn: 25-38 ATS as a head coach favorite (below 40%), the least profitable active coach
Those are just a few of the many trends in New York's favor.
Grab Giants +6.5 at ESPN Bet if you can, but the +6 at most books is fine too.
The Giants should keep this one close all the way and could even be live at +225 on the moneyline.
This could be a game that wrecks survivor pools.
Pick: Giants +6.5 (bet to +6)
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Steelers vs Jets
This game is chock full of delicious narratives with a weird double-revenge spot for Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, but I'm asking a different question: how are either of these teams going to score?
Rodgers didn't play a snap in the preseason.
That's probably not shocking for a quarterback in his 40s with a significant injury history, but it also means Rodgers has yet to play a real down of football with any of his new Steelers teammates. It means we have no idea how Rodgers looks in an Arthur Smith offense that doesn't suit his strengths, nor if he has any chemistry with DK Metcalf or rhythm with his new young offensive line.
There's simply no proof of concept with this Steelers offense yet, and the Jets defense is still incredibly talented and should benefit from a fresh start under new head coach Aaron Glenn.
It's even uglier the other direction.
The Jets didn't have much offense heading into the season as it was, and now they just lost stud G Alijah Vera-Tucker for the year on the eve of the season. That's a tough hit, losing your best lineman on what might have been the strength of the offense, especially against this fearsome Steelers defensive front that's as good as any in the league.
It remains to be seen what new Jets OC Tanner Engstrand's offense looks like. Maybe New York can run the ball — but a heavy run script means a faster clock, and that suits the under.
Fields is not a serious NFL quarterback at this point, and Pittsburgh's defense just spent an entire year practicing against him and knows exactly how to limit his few strengths.
Where do the points come from?
Bettors are already hitting the under, with this line dropping from 39.5 at open to 38.5, but that's not a particularly valuable key number, and anything above 37 should be fine.
Mike Tomlin's road unders early in the season have been a wagon. In the first 10 games of the season, Tomlin's road unders are 65% for his career, and that includes an obscene 40-11-1 since 2014 — 78% to the under, by almost five points per game!
We started Week 1 last season with a Tomlin road under, so let's get right back on the horse. Sometimes the obvious pick is also the good one.
Care for a little Week 1 mineshaft? Under 34.5 runs at +156, with under 30.5 at +255 (both at bet365).
I'll play another direction. Doesn't this just feel like one of those games the Steelers lose in Week 1 — Rodgers too, for that matter? If this one stays below 38.5, it should be close and give the Jets a chance.
I'll place a portion of my bet parlaying under 38.5 with the Jets moneyline at +325 (DraftKings).
Picks:
- Under 38.5
- Under 38.5 + Jets Moneyline (+325; DK)
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Dolphins vs Colts
When I first pulled up the Week 1 schedule, this would've been the last game I expected to bet. These feel like two of the least predictable teams in the league, and the vibes for both franchises this offseason were terrible.
I also hate betting games with coin-flip lines like this, and these teams were certainly a coin flip last year — both offenses and defenses ranked between 19th and 22nd in DVOA, a perfect encapsulation of subpar-but-not-terrible units.
For some goofy reason, the Colts have been terrible in Week 1 for quite a while. They managed to cover last season by a single point, but it was their first Week 1 cover in a decade.
And for some reason, when the Dolphins do win a game, it's usually not close.
In the last two years, Miami has won 18 games with Tua Tagovailoa; 11 of those wins (61%) were by at least seven points, and almost half of them (44%) were by at least 14.
The Dolphins are unpredictable week-to-week, but when this offense is healthy and things go well, they usually go quite well. Head coach Mike McDaniel always has a few new wrinkles to start the season, and that's a tough ask for new Colts DC Lou Anarumo with his guys adjusting to a new system.
Miami's secondary has five new names this season, but the Colts aren't built to test that secondary, and if the Colts do fall behind, do you trust Daniel Jones playing from a negative script?
I want no part in a traditional side or moneyline here. I have no idea if either team is good, bad, or terrible, nor who will win.
But if the Dolphins do win, they'll probably win by a lot, so let's just play that.
Split your bet between two Miami alternate lines: -6.5 at +240 (BetMGM) and -13.5 at +560 (FanDuel).
Picks: Dolphins Alt Lines -6.5 (+240; BetMGM); -13.5 (+560; FanDuel)
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Bengals vs Browns
Joe Burrow hasn't been great in his career against the Browns, and he's typically slow starting out the season at 3-7 ATS in the first two games of the season.
Joe Flacco could give the Browns a chance in this division rivalry, especially if winds hit 15 mph. Flacco could give Cleveland a chance, specifically because Cincinnati's defense looks awful.
The Bengals had the worst defense in the league against tight ends last season. Opposing tight ends combined for 111 catches, 10 TDs, and over 1,100 yards! Ten times a tight end had at least 55 yards receiving against the Bengals.
Two of those times were by David Njoku, who had two of his three best games of the season against the Bengals, once with 10 catches for 76 yards and the other with eight receptions for 66.
Don't forget, Njoku and Flacco already have huge chemistry. That duo combined for 390 yards and 30 catches on nine targets per game during their five games together in 2023. Njoku had at least six catches in all but one of those games and hit 90 yards in over half of them.
I want yards and receptions both, and I'm taking the escalator all the way to the top.
Let's start with the standard over 48.5 receiving yards as the main bet, then add 70+ yards at +250 (bet365). From there, we'll switch over to receptions, especially in the windy conditions, and go with 8+ receptions at +525 and 10+ receptions at +1500 (bet365).
Remember, Njoku already hit those marks against Cincinnati last year!
David Njoku Receiving Escalator
- Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
- 70+ Receiving Yards +250 (bet365)
- 8+ Receptions +525 (bet365)
- 10+ Receptions +1500 (bet365)
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49ers vs Seahawks
I'm in on the 49ers this season, but this is a bad spot for them.
The 49ers enter the season with a bunch of injuries at WR and in the trenches in a tough spot in Seattle in Robert Saleh's first game back as defensive coordinator. Mike MacDonald's defensive schemes have been great against Kyle Shanahan- and Sean McVay-type offenses, and he had an entire offseason to prep for this.
There's also one key matchup that's very worrying for San Francisco: Seattle's run game.
Klint Kubiak is the new playcaller in Seattle, and if the preseason was any indication, his presence could transform this Seahawks rushing attack.
A young offensive line that was widely panned as a consensus bottom three in the league suddenly looked outstanding — the Seahawks were ripping off big runs left and right.
San Francisco's pass defense was good last season, but it ranked in the bottom 10 by DVOA against the run. The 49ers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs last season, letting 10 RBs rush for 70+ yards and giving up a league-high 18 rushing TDs to opposing RBs.
Kenneth Walker looks healthy and should get plenty of touches in Kubiak's system. He had a touchdown in both 49ers games last fall.
Let's back Walker to go over 59.5 yards, and as a slight escalator, we'll place a portion of our bet on Walker going over his rushing line and also finding the end zone at +323 (FanDuel).
Picks:
- Kenneth Walker Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
- Walker Over 59.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime TD (+323; FanDuel)
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Titans vs Broncos
On the surface, this pick is absolutely crazy.
The Broncos are 56-15-2 at home in the first two weeks in their history (per Anthony Dabbundo), and now No. 1 pick Cam Ward will make his debut on the road against this nasty, attacking defense.
Rookie QBs making their road debut in Week 1 are 8-21 SU, and 28 QBs selected No. 1 since the merger are 5-22-1 SU in their first start.
So none of that is great. The Broncos were a playoff team last year, and the Titans were 2-15 ATS — this is a huge line.
And that huge line is exactly why we're playing it. It's just way too soon to be this confident about one team being this good and another being this bad. Almost any line this long is worth a play in Week 1 — just as a bet on uncertainty — and there are a slew of trends saying the spread line is too long.
This is the exact sort of opponent the Broncos blew out last season, so I'm not interested in just betting the Titans to keep it close. Tennessee has made big improvements on its offensive line, special teams and quarterback.
If this is close, though, I'm going for it all.
Bo Nix is only a sophomore himself, after all, and that goofy perfect 8-0 ATS and SU record he sported as a rookie is just dying to be broken.
This is a hero play that has no business cashing, but this game has no business sitting at +350 on the moneyline.
I'll take a nibble.
Pick: Titans Moneyline
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Texans vs Rams
I'm pretty worried about the Rams early.
Los Angeles started slow last season at 1-4, and this has become a pattern, in part because of early injuries.
Matthew Stafford looks ready to go, but he didn't play at all in the preseason. He barely even practiced and didn't even play in any of the Rams' scrimmages. That's tough for an older player with a back injury.
That injury has also overshadowed the absence of LT Alaric Jackson, the best player on the Rams' line — he is out with blood clots. That's a huge loss for this game with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter bearing down on Stafford, whose play often directly reflects his line play.
The Texans defense may be the best in the league and is by far the best unit on the field, and the Rams defense is the worst unit. L.A.'s offense is so much about precision, rhythm and repetition under Sean McVay, and the Rams just haven't had a chance to do that in the preseason.
So why just a first-half play?
I'm a bit concerned about Houston's new offense under OC Nick Caley, especially the terrible offensive line against this Rams front. I'm also worried by Houston's second-half play — the Texans were an awful 4-13 ATS in the second half last season but an awesome 13-4 in the first half.
Playing just the first half also affords us a chance to specifically attack Stafford's rust early. Per Raheem Palmer, teams are an ugly 3-12 ATS the last two seasons in just the first half with a quarterback who didn't play in the preseason.
Give me Texans 1H +2.5 (ESPN Bet), and you're welcome to sprinkle the +125 1H moneyline if you like.
If you do trust the Texans to finish the job, a Texans halftime/full-time parlay pays out at +216 (DraftKings).
Pick: Texans 1H +2.5
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Lions vs Packers
This line feels like a misread of what these teams are. It might be more of a representation of what they were last year.
As a slight home favorite, that's rating these teams close to equal. Despite the Lions winning four more games last year, they were relative equals! The Lions ranked third in DVOA to Green Bay's fourth, and both defenses ranked just inside the top seven.
But forget about what was and focus on what is.
The Lions offense took three major blows this offseason. Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler are huge losses on the offensive line, and the other loss was off the field with the departure of Ben Johnson. New OC John Morton has huge shoes to fill, and the Lions offense should be expected to take a significant step back.
Jared Goff has also struggled outdoors — it looks windy — and he didn't play in the preseason, so he'll take snaps from a new center and fits that first-half trend we just mentioned in our Texans pick.
That's not all.
The Lions defense does not enter the season healthy. Aidan Hutchinson is still working his way back from injury, and Detroit's defensive tackle rotation is a mess with Alim McNeill still out.
Meanwhile, the Packers just added Micah Parsons, and it's an even bigger problem that Detroit has no film on how the Packers will utilize their new joker against this reworked offensive line.
Last season, the Lions were just a little bit better at everything.
This season, the Packers are, and this is a bet on Green Bay continuity against all those Detroit losses in the trenches and two brand new playcallers.
Road underdogs of six or less that made last year's playoffs are just 17-32-3 ATS in Week 1 over the last two decades. When books know a playoff team should be an underdog, that tells us all we need to know.
Take the Packers to win and cover anything under the key number, and this may also be your last chance to buy in on the division at +180 if you want to grab an NFC North position.
Pick: Packers -1.5
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Ravens vs Bills
I've been beating my drum all preseason about how much better the Ravens are than the rest of the NFL.
I ranked all 32 teams by quarterback, skill players, offensive line, coaching, defense and special teams — and Baltimore ranked in the top seven in every single area. It's telling that they're favored on the road in Buffalo to start the season against a presumed top Super Bowl contender.
We know this matchup by now, and Baltimore's been thinking about it all offseason.
The Ravens lost by two thanks to a late Mark Andrews drop — and two early Lamar Jackson fumbles — but were the better team on the balance, outgaining the Bills by 143 yards.
These teams also played earlier last season, though, and the Ravens absolutely demolished Buffalo in that one. The Ravens won by the score of 35-10 and outgained the Bills by nearly 200 yards, including 34 runs for 271 yards, and Baltimore has consistently run on Buffalo in these matchups.
I still don't trust Sean McDermott's defense against top quarterbacks and offenses, and there's no better offense entering the league than Baltimore's.
But it gets worse.
This line flipped from Buffalo being favored by a point to Baltimore as a favorite, and that's because the Bills are suffering cluster injuries entering the season.
Starting corners Christian Benford and Tre'Davious White are both dealing with groin injuries, and first-round rookie CB Maxwell Hairston is already on IR. That's a big problem against the No. 1 Passing DVOA team in the league from last year.
WR Keon Coleman and PK Tyler Bass are also dealing with groin injuries — what in the world is happening to groins in Buffalo?! — and WR Khalil Shakir is still nursing back to health. Baltimore is missing TE Isaiah Likely and FB Patrick Ricard, and that's not nothing, but cluster injuries at WR and CB are bad news.
Despite all that, and despite my confidence in the Ravens, I still have to respect Josh Allen. He's 67% ATS lifetime as anything other than at least a field goal favorite, and he's also lethal in the second half at 71-35-3 ATS (66%).
Lamar Jackson is a first-half guy at 58-34-2 ATS (63%) for his career, so let's get our money in the first half and avoid another breathtaking finish that could go either way down the stretch.
I prefer the Ravens' first-half moneyline at -105 (ESPN Bet) to the first-half spread -0.5 (+105, DraftKings). It costs us 10 cents extra, but we push a halftime tie, where the spread bet is a loss.
Oh, one more thing — if the Ravens do win this one and Jackson beats Allen head-to-head in front of a national audience on Sunday night, this may also be your last time to bet Jackson at +550 for MVP. Go get it.
Pick: Ravens 1H Moneyline
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NFL Week 2 Lookahead Pick: Commanders vs Packers
Each week in this column, I'll play at least one lookahead line.
While everyone else is focused on games this weekend, I'm already looking ahead at next weekend's slate. The goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of this weekend's results and grab a line now that won't be there next week.
This first pick for Week 2 should come as no surprise if you've been following my season previews or even the picks in this column. I like Green Bay a ton this year, and I expect them to take care of the Lions, which would certainly boost the Packers' profile. I'm also down on Washington for reasons I noted above in the Commanders-Giants section.
If those results go that direction, there's no chance this stays below the key number of three a week from now. It probably ends up on the other side — and it should.
These teams are not in the same class. I slotted the Packers third in my initial power rankings, while the Commanders are closer to the bottom 10. This is effectively the same line Green Bay is getting at home in Week 1 against the Lions — but why in the world would we power rank Washington equal to Detroit?
That Lions line dropped a bit because of the Micah Parsons trade, but this one hasn't budged. It should've — Parsons sacked Jayden Daniels 4.5 times in two games last year, and now Washington will have a short week and just one game of film to prepare for how Parsons will be unleashed in this defense.
That short week is also an even bigger advantage for Matt LaFleur against Dan Quinn. LaFleur is outstanding early in the season at 12-3 ATS the first three games, entering this weekend.
I don't expect this line to stay below three long, and it's already there at some books.
Grab Packers -2.5 while it's still there.
Pick: Packers -2.5
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Brandon's Week 1 Betting Card and Week 2 Lookahead Pick
- Giants +6.5 (1 unit)
- Texans 1H +2.5 (1 unit) | Texans HT/FT ML parlay +216 (0.25 units)
- Packers -1.5 (1 unit)
- Ravens 1H ML -105 (1 unit)
- Steelers/Jets under 38.5 (1 unit) | Jets ML & under 38.5 parlay +325 (0.25 units)
- David Njoku escalator: over 48.5 yards (1.25 units) | 70+ yards +260 (0.25 units) | 8+ rec +525 (0.25 units) | 10+ rec +1500 (0.25 units)
- Kenneth Walker over 59.5 rushing yards | Over 59.5 & Anytime TD parlay +323 (0.25 units)
- Titans ML +350 (0.25 units)
- Dolphins alt lines: -6.5 +240 (0.25 units) | -13.5 +560 (0.25 units)
- Week 2 Lookahead: Packers -2.5 vs Commanders (2 units)
