NFL Week 10 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 2 Games Fit Thresholds
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt LaFleur.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 10.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-61-6 (62.4%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent.
For the year, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-7-2 ATS. There is one game that meets our Luck Matchup criteria in Week 10.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 3-1 to the under last week and started off 1-0 this week with the under hitting on Thursday Night Football. They are 21-11 (65.6%) to the under this year and 110-73-2 (60%) over the last six years. Overall, Luck Totals meeting any of the criteria are 152-95-3 (61.4%) since 2018.
There's one more game this week that meets the Luck Total criteria. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 10
Patriots vs. Colts
The Patriots and Colts play in Germany, marking the fifth overseas game of the year. The first four all stayed under their respective totals.
Add in a Luck Total of -11.0, and there's added reason to back the under. That's because if the Luck Total is -10 or lower, unders are 23-14 (62.2%) since the start of 2018.
In addition to the 60% hit rate overall for Luck Unders, as mentioned in the introduction, including the 65.6% hit rate this year, Luck Unders where the game total lies below the key number of 44 have gone under 15 out of 23 times for a 65.2% rate.
Both of these teams were involved in Luck Unders last week, and in both cases the under hit.
Packers vs. Steelers
This game has a Luck Difference of 29 and a Luck Gap of 49.6%, with the Packers checking in as the unlucky team.
As the road team, the Packers fit a plethora of luck-based trends against the spread.
- Unlucky road teams: 54-23-3 (69%)
- Unlucky road teams with a Luck Difference of at least 28: 12-2 (86%)
- These teams after Week 4: 11-1 ATS (92%)
- Unlucky road teams where the game has a positive luck total: 29-10-2 (72%)
- Unlucky road teams with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 10 or later: 24-7-2 (75%)
Our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, which power our Luck Rankings, have the Packers rated as the slightly better team at a neutral site.
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