NFL Week 11 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 2 Games Fit Thresholds
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Thielen.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 11.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-62-6 (62%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent.
For the year, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-8-2 ATS. There is one game that meets our Luck Matchup criteria in Week 10.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-0 to the under last week. They are 22-11 (66.7%) to the under this year and 111-73-2 (60%) over the last six years. Overall, Luck Totals meeting any of the criteria are 153-95-3 (61.8%) since 2018.
There are two games this week that meet the Luck Total criteria. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 11
Bears vs. Lions
The first matchup of the season between two NFC North rivals has a Luck Total of -6.2. Divisional games are 39-28 to the under when the Luck Total is -5 or lower.
The first meetings don't fare quite as well, staying under with a 21-18 record. That 53.8% mark is enough to cover juice to -115. Had this been a second meeting, the signal would be much stronger at 64.3%, which will be something to keep in mind should the Luck Total remain below -5 when these teams meet again in Week 14.
The Bears have taken part in seven games this year that were Luck Unders. The first three all went over, but the next four all stayed under.
Detroit's games are 1-1 to the under when it meets the threshold this year.
Pick: Under 48
Cowboys vs. Panthers
The Luck Total of -5.9 may not look incredibly strong, but games between -5 and -6 are still 59.5% to the under over the last six years, which is only a fraction of a percentage point lower than the 60% rate for all Luck Unders. That improves to 9-4 (69.2%) if a game with a Luck Total in this range occurs in Week 11 or later.
In addition to the 60% hit rate overall, Luck Unders where the game total lies below the key number of 44 have gone under 17 out of 24 times for a 68% rate. If that total is 42 or lower — where this game currently resides — then Luck Unders have gone 9-2 to the under.
The Panthers have been involved in two Luck Under games this year, with both coming in just the last two weeks. Both of those games stayed under. Dallas' only involvement was in Week 3 against Arizona (that went over).
Pick: Under 42.5
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