NFL Week 13 Main Slate Player Props: Sell Jimmy Graham and Jack Doyle While you Still Can (Sunday, Dec. 6)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Graham.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.
Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 13 main slate:
Indianapolis Colts TE Jack Doyle
The Pick: Under 18.5 receiving yards (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
The Colts’ offense is in a great spot this week against the Texans. Houston has struggled in all facets defensively this season, ranking 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 27th in run defense DVOA.
That said, don’t expect Doyle to be a huge part of the Colts' Week 13 game plan. He’s technically still the starter at the position, but Indianapolis utilizes a variety of options at tight end. Mo Alie-Cox led the Colts TEs with a 51% snap share last week vs. the Titans, and Trey Burton ranked second at 36%. That didn’t leave much for Doyle, who played on just 30% of the Colts’ offensive snaps.
Unsurprisingly, Doyle’s production has decreased as his snaps have gone down. He saw just one target last week, marking the third straight game where he’s garnered two targets or fewer. He’s caught just one pass for six yards over that time frame, so this line seems way too high.
Detroit Lions WR Mohamad Sanu
The Pick: Over 1.5 receptions (-201)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
The Lions pass-catching options are pretty thin at the moment. Kenny Golladay will miss his fourth straight game — and it’s starting to look like he may be done for the season — and D’Andre Swift is doubtful after dealing with a concussion and an illness. The team also released Marvin Hall, which leaves them without three regular contributors this week vs. the Bears.
They were in a similar situation last week, and Sanu was able pick up some of the slack. He played on 48% of their offensive snaps, which trailed only Marvin Jones (83%) and Hall (60%) among the Lions’ WRs. Sanu was able to make the most of his playing time in that contest, finishing with four catches for 32 yards and a touchdown.
The Lions have expressed interest in getting more playing time for Quintez Cephus and Jamal Agnew, but Sanu should still see a comfortable role in this offense. Asking him to catch two passes seems reasonable.
Chicago Bears TE Jimmy Graham
The Pick: Under 30.5 receiving yards (-125)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
There has been a changing of the guard at the TE position in Chicago. Cole Kmet has taken over as the top option, and he played on a season-high 79% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last week. Kmet was the first TE taken in this year's NFL draft, so it’s not surprising that Chicago is taking an extended look at him down the stretch.
That’s a great move for the long-term outlook of the franchise, but it has not been great for Graham. He played on just 58% of the Bears’ offensive snaps two games ago against the Vikings, and that number plummeted to just 35% last Sunday night against the Packers. Graham was still able to catch three passes for 32 yards in that contest, but that doesn’t seem sustainable given such a low snap count.
Even if he can sustain the same number of catches, he still seems due for some regression in the yardage department given his average of 8.8 yards per catch this season.
New York Giants WR Sterling Shepard
The Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (+130)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Giants offense this week. They haven’t officially ruled Daniel Jones out for this contest — he’s currently listed as doubtful — but all signs point to Colt McCoy getting the start at QB vs. the Seahawks. That’s going to have a major impact on their skill players. Jones isn’t exactly a world-beater, but he’s a massive upgrade over McCoy. McCoy has gone just 7-21 as a starting quarterback, and he’s averaged just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt throughout his career. He was awful in relief of Jones last week vs. the Bengals, posting an adjusted yards per attempt of just 3.1.
That said, McCoy being at QB could actually make Shepard an appealing buy in the prop market. He saw four targets on McCoy’s 10 pass attempts last week, and his skill set fits with what McCoy likes to do on offense. McCoy does not like to push the ball downfield — he's averaged just 5.0 air yards per completion this season — and Shepard’s average depth of target is less than Golden Tate’s and Darius Slayton’s.
This game also sets up nicely for Shepard from a game-script perspective. The Giants are large underdogs in this contest, which means they should have no choice but to put the ball in McCoy’s hands. The Seahawks have also struggled in terms of pass defense this season, so I’m willing to roll the dice on this prop at better than even money.
Green Bay Packers RB Jamaal Williams
The Pick: Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality: 9 out of 10
The Packers are large favorites this week vs. the Eagles, which is typically a good sign for running backs. Large leads typically lead to more carries, which is where RBs get the majority of their value from.
Williams is the RB2 for the Packers, but he has a larger role in the offense than you might think. Aaron Jones leads the team with an average of 14.4 rushing attempts per game, but Williams isn’t far behind at 9.8.
He can get even more carries than usual if this game does turn into a blowout. Both Jones and Williams finished with 17 carries last week vs. the Bears, but 10 of Williams’ carries came after halftime. Williams should have no problem hitting the over if this game turns into a laugher, but he still has a chance even if it’s competitive. He’s seen at least seven carries in seven of 10 games this season, and he’s averaged a 4.2 yards per carry.
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