NFL Week 17 Betting System Picks: Take Advantage of These 3 Undervalued Favorites

NFL Week 17 Betting System Picks: Take Advantage of These 3 Undervalued Favorites article feature image

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

  • The Patriots are 12-3, but have underperformed this season according to Pythagorean expectation.
  • Using Bet Labs, we detail which teams are undervalued in Week 17 and how bettors can take advantage.

Pythagorean expectation is a formula devised to estimate the percentage of games a team “should” have won based on points scored and allowed.

By comparing a team’s actual win percentage to its Pythagorean win percentage we can determine which teams are overperforming and underperforming during a season.

The New England Patriots are 12-3 and have outscored their opponents by 198 points, the second-best point differential in football. It is weird to say, but despite the Pats’ success this season, Bill Belichick & Co. have underperformed based on Pythagorean expectation.

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The Patriots should have won 12.6 games. That 0.6-win differential between expected and actual wins isn’t much, but it does point to value backing Tom Brady this weekend.

Here’s a look at which teams are being undervalued in NFL Week 17.

NFL Week 17 Betting System Picks

Since 2003, teams with a positive Pythagorean expectation playing in December or later have gone 598-560-39 (52%) against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs. Teams with winning records and a positive Pythagorean expectation have been the best bets:

A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $2,851 since 2003 according to Bet Labs.

The Patriots are 16-point favorites at home against the Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). New England needs a win to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, but bettors are confident the Dolphins can keep it close — 63% of tickets are on Miami to cover.

History suggests the underperforming Patriots are undervalued by the betting market. The Action Network NFL simulations agree, projecting New England as a 17-point favorite.

TB12 and the Patriots aren’t the only team to match this system in Week 17.

Week 17 Matches

  • New England Patriots (-16) vs. Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
  • Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
  • Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Houston Texans (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

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