Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings: Best Week 14 ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings: Best Week 14 ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Vikings mascot

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to identify his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his Week 14 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 14 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 14 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 14 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Packers

Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 88.8%

2. Vikings

Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 86.1%

3. Eagles

Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 77%

3. Browns

Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 77%

3. Texans

Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 77%

6. Jets

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

7. Ravens

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

8. Patriots

Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

8. Titans

Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

8. Falcons

Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

11. Cowboys

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

11. Chargers

Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

13. Saints

Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

13. Steelers

Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

13. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

16. Seahawks

Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 50%

16. Rams

Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 50%

18. Colts

Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

18. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

18. 49ers

Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

21. Bears

Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

21. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

23. Chiefs

Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

23. Panthers

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

23. Raiders

Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

26. Bills

Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

27. Dolphins

Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

28. Bengals

Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 23%

28. Broncos

Matchup: @ HOU23%

28. Giants

Matchup: @ PHI23%

31. Lions

Matchup: @ MIN13.9%

32. Redskins

Matchup: @ GB11.2%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Rams

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. SEA

2. Jets

Spread: -5
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-3. Cardinals

Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. PIT

T-3. Jaguars

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. LAC

5. Giants

Spread: +9.5
Opponent: @ PHI

6. Packers

Spread: -12.5
Opponent: vs. WAS

T-8. Vikings

Spread: -12.5
Opponent: vs. DET

T-8. Bengals

Spread: +8.5
Opponent: @ CLE

T-8. Broncos

Spread: +9
Opponent: @ HOU

T-11. Colts

Spread: +3
Opponent: @ TB

T-11. 49ers

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ NO

T-11. Bears

Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. DAL

T-14. Falcons

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. CAR

T-14. Bills

Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. BAL

T-14. Patriots

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. KC

16. Raiders

Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. TEN

17. Titans

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ OAK

T-19. Chiefs

Spread: +3
Opponent: @ NE

T-19. Ravens

Spread: -6
Opponent: @ BUF

T-19. Panthers

Spread: +3
Opponent: @ ATL

T-22. Cowboys

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ CHI

T-22. Saints

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. SF

T-22. Buccaneers

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. IND

T-25. Browns

Spread: -8.5
Opponent: vs. CIN

T-25. Texans

Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. DEN

T-25. Lions

Spread: +12.5
Opponent: @ MIN

27. Redskins

Spread: +12.5
Opponent: @ GB

28. Eagles

Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. NYG

T-29. Chargers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ JAX

T-29. Steelers

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ ARI

31. Dolphins

Spread: +5
Opponent: @ NYJ

32. Seahawks

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ LAR


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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