NFL Week 15 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 4 Games Fit Thresholds
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean McVay.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 15.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 104-63-6 (62%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage that's at least 50% worse than their opponent.
A new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 112-65-6 (62.8%) ATS since the start of 2018.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 1-0 to the under last week, improving to 23-15-1 (60.3%) to the under this year and 117-80-3 (59.3%) over the past six years. Luck overs went 1-0 last week, and 1-0 on Thursday Night this week, moving them 35-18-1 (65.7%) over the past six years.
There are four luck-based games in Week 15. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 15
The Saints come into this game 25 places lower than the Giants in the Luck Rankings, but this probably isn't a game to back New Orleans based on luck.
With a Luck Gap of 29.6%, this game doesn't meet the minimum 30% threshold for a late-season luck-based game based on Luck Gap. Instead, they meet the 24-plus criteria, which has a solid record, but a bit of deeper diving will lead us to avoid placing any luck-based emphasis on this one.
That's because the Saints are at home, and unfortunately the luck splits don't bounce their way as the home team. Unlucky teams with a 24+ difference, but no significant Luck Gap are just 27-24-2 ATS if they are the home team, which is just barely enough to beat a -110 line.
If you like the Saints, by all means, that's fine, just don't use luck-based reasons as part of that.
With a Luck Total of -6.9, this game is in prime Luck Under territory.
Games with a Luck Total between -5 and -7 after Week 11 are 19-10-1 (65%) which is a nice boost in addition to the broader luck under trends. Additionally, divisional teams meeting in their second game of the year are 19-10 (65.5%) to the under when the Luck Total is -5 or lower.
With Luck Totals of -8.2 for the Bears vs. Browns and -9.0 for Commanders vs. Rams, you may be inclined to think these are strong Luck Unders.
And while they do fit the Luck Under trend and are counted in the Luck Under rankings, we've noticed a trend where late in the season if the Luck Total is below -7.5, as these two games are, there is a bit of a reverse signal where these games actually tend to go over.
These games are actually 21-13 (61.8%) to the over in the Luck Rankings era.
As such, these games are ones to avoid based on luck given the conflicting signals. You may still like the under, or over, for various reasons in them, but luck should be a minimal factor.
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