NFL Luck Rankings Week 15: Steelers Continue to Fall, Panthers Go Bottom
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young (left) and Mike Tomlin.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 15.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 8-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.
However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road after the Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 112-65-6 (62.8%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 15.
NFL Week 15 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23.2% | |
| 2 | 16.72% | |
| 3 | 14.12% | |
| 4 | 14.01% | |
| 5 | 13.74% | |
| 6 | 12.38% | |
| 7 | 10.65% | |
| 8 | 9.76% | |
| 9 | 9.39% | |
| 10 | 2.61% | |
| 11 | 0.83% | |
| 12 | 0.36% | |
| 13 | 0.01% | |
| 14 | -0.37% | |
| 15 | -0.38% | |
| 16 | -0.7% | |
| 17 | -1.97% | |
| 18 | -2.27% | |
| 19 | -2.68% | |
| 20 | -3.37% | |
| 21 | -3.39% | |
| 22 | -4.25% | |
| 23 | -4.48% | |
| 24 | -7.83% | |
| 25 | -8.32% | |
| 26 | -8.34% | |
| 27 | -10.58% | |
| 28 | -11% | |
| 29 | -11.03% | |
| 30 | -13.84% | |
| 31 | -16.9% | |
| 32 | -17.96% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Philadelphia Eagles
For the second week in a row, the Eagles lost by multiple scores after a 33-13 loss to NFC East rival Dallas.
The reason this doesn't drop the Eagles in the Luck Rankings is because the Expected Score was nearly identical at 30-14, so they didn't get all that unlucky. Combine that with the Steelers' bad luck, and the gap between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh widened.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were the second-most unlucky team from Week 14. That puts them inside the top-two most unlucky teams in each of the last two weeks.
Pittsburgh's Luck% has more than halved, falling from 35.3% after Week 10 to 16.7% now. The Steelers have lost three of their last four games in that span.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts got smacked in Week 14 by Cincinnati 34-14 in a game that had an expected score of 27-13. That puts them on the heels of the team they face this week, the Steelers, for the No. 2 spot, with a Luck% of 14.1%. The winner of that game will likely retain at least the No. 2 spot going into Week 16.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo's win over Kansas City elevates them off the bottom line, but they're still a 9-4 quality team with a 7-6 record, which is enough to keep them in the bottom three.
31. New Orleans Saints
The Saints remain in 31st after a win against their NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers …
32. Carolina Panthers
… which moves Carolina from 30th to 32nd in the Luck Rankings. The 1-12 Panthers have the second-worst Expected Win%, ahead of only the Cardinals, who are 3-10 and pretty much in line with expectation. Carolina, though, has two fewer wins despite a slightly better win expectation.
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