NFL Week 16 Player Props for Jake Ferguson & Jahan Dotson
Via Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Ferguson #87 of the Dallas Cowboys runs with the ball against the New York Jets during the second half at AT&T Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Arlington, Texas.
Former first-round pick Jahan Dotson has not had the sophomore season many Commanders fans were expecting. He’s struggled to establish a rapport with quarterback Sam Howell, and in terms of this longest reception line of 14.5 yards, he’s stayed under in nine of 14 games.
Life likely doesn’t get any easier for Dotson today against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have both played at a Pro Bowl level and figure to match up with him frequently in coverage.
Overall, the Jets defense has held opposing wide receivers to the fewest targets, receptions and yards this season.
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Dotson’s Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is only 9.9 yards, but over the last five games, his aDOT has dropped to 8.3 yards. In fact, over the last five games, the Penn State product has only registered one deep target (20+ Air Yards), per Pro Football Focus.
I have Dotson’s longest reception projected at 11 yards today in what should be a brutal matchup.
Pick: Jahan Dotson Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-115 | Play to -130 at DraftKings)
Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has come on strong of late, with at least five catches in each of his last three games. While his hit rate on this line for the entire season is low (6/14), six of the misses came in games where the Cowboys won by at least three touchdowns.
However, I expect today's game to remain relatively close against the electric Dolphins offense, especially given the Cowboys' road struggles this season. This sets up as a favorable matchup for Ferguson because Miami rates 26th in DVOA against tight ends this season, per FTN Fantasy.
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Star Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb figures to see a good amount of coverage from Dolphins All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ferguson, who is second on the Cowboys to Lamb in essentially every major receiving category, stands to be the direct beneficiary.
In what projects to be a back-and-forth contest, I have Ferguson projected at eight targets and 5.5 catches today.
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+118 | Play to -105 at FanDuel)
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