NFL Week 16 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 4 Games Fit Thresholds
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images. Pictured: Drake London.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for NFL Week 16.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 105-63-6 (62.1%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage that's at least 50% worse than their opponent.
A new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 113-65-6 (63%) ATS since the start of 2018.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-0 to the under last week, improving to 26-15-1 (63.1%) to the under this year and 120-81-3 (59.6%) over the last six years. Luck Overs went 1-0 last week, moving them 35-18-1 (65.7%) over the last six years.
Like last week, there is one Luck Matchup, one Luck Over, and two Luck Unders for Week 16. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 16
The Falcons rank 24 places lower than the Colts in our Week 16 Luck Rankings, with a Luck Gap of 24.6% separating the two teams.
With a Luck Gap of 24.6%, this doesn't meet the minimum 30% threshold for a late-season game based on Luck Gap, so we'll only rely on the Luck Differential trends.
Thankfully for Atlanta, there's a strong trend in its favor. From Week 14 to the second-to-last week of the regular season (Week 16 in 2018-2020 and Week 17 in 2021-2023), unlucky teams in games with a Luck Difference of at least 24 places are 18-2-1 (88.1%) ATS, showing the power of tracking luck throughout the year.
With a Luck Total of +5.01 this game falls into Luck Over territory.
Luck Overs are 35-18-1 to the over in the last six years, including 5-1 this year. Interestingly though, the only Luck Over that went under this year was when these teams met in Week 12, scoring a combined 26 points in a game with a total of 36.
However, the Expected Score in that game was 24-14 in Pittsburgh's favor, which would have been 38 total points.
Both of these games are categorized as Luck Unders given their Luck Totals of -8.8 (WAS vs. NYJ) and -9.8 (DAL vs. MIA).
However, late in the season, game have nearly a 50-50 rate of going over or under if the Luck Total is below -7.5.
That said, the larger trend has been to the under in games with a Luck Total below -5, so these games can be categorized as Luck Under leans given the late-season trends.
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