NFL Luck Rankings Week 16: A New Number 1; NFC South Makes Up Bottom 3
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Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 16.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 9-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.
However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 113-65-6 (63%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 16.
NFL Week 16 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17.19% | |
| 2 | 16.93% | |
| 3 | 16.57% | |
| 4 | 12.83% | |
| 5 | 11.98% | |
| 6 | 11.94% | |
| 7 | 11.66% | |
| 8 | 9.5% | |
| 9 | 9.06% | |
| 10 | 2.38% | |
| 11 | 1.24% | |
| 12 | 0.92% | |
| 13 | 0.84% | |
| 14 | 0.75% | |
| 15 | 0.21% | |
| 16 | -0.84% | |
| 17 | -2.19% | |
| 18 | -2.41% | |
| 19 | -3.41% | |
| 20 | -3.68% | |
| 21 | -3.97% | |
| 22 | -4.8% | |
| 23 | -5.52% | |
| 24 | -6.89% | |
| 25 | -7.28% | |
| 26 | -7.37% | |
| 27 | -10.63% | |
| 28 | -11.59% | |
| 29 | -11.8% | |
| 30 | -12.68% | |
| 31 | -13.59% | |
| 32 | -16.03% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Cincinnati Bengals
For the first time all season, the luckiest team in the NFL resides outside of Pennsylvania.
This week, it's the Cincinnati Bengals, who leapfrog the losing Steelers and Eagles with their 27-24 win over the Vikings, which was a game that our Expected Score metric had the Vikings winning 27-25.
Overall, Cincinnati has been a top-half team in weekly luck in each of the last nine weeks they've played, as well as in 12 of their 14 games.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh's loss to Indianapolis was a bit lucky, despite losing by a scoreline of 30-13. That's because our Expected Score metric had this as a 33-11 game, meaning the Steelers' Luck% went up from 16.7% to 16.9% despite the blowout loss.
Pittsburgh faces the new No. 1 Bengals in a big divisional rivalry matchup in Week 16. That matchup fits our Luck Over rating with a Luck Total of +5.01%.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The state of Pennsylvania's 0-6 demise over the past three weeks continued with the Eagles' loss to Seattle on Monday Night Football, knocking Philadelphia from the top spot down to third.
The Eagles finally got quite unlucky with the fourth-worst beat of Week 15 as their 20-17 loss was a 20-16 Expected Score win for them. Philly's three straight losses have knocked its Luck% down from a peak of 28.3% to 16.6%. The Eagles will look to right the ship in Week 16 against the Giants.
The Unluckiest Teams
30-32. The NFC South (other than Tampa Bay)
The NFC South's futility has resulted in the bottom three teams in the Luck Rankings all residing in the division.
The Falcons are 30th at 6-8 when they're closer to an 8-6 team by Expected Score.
The team that just beat Atlanta, the Panthers, is 31st and has played more like a four-win team than a 2-12 team.
Bringing up the rear, the Saints are 7-7 but have played more like a 9-5 team thanks to some dominant wins but also five one-score losses. The Saints have won by 18, 22, 11 and 34 points this season, but they're just 3-5 in one-score games, which is why they're dead last in the Luck Rankings entering Week 16.
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