NFL Week 3 is one of my favorites to bet — it's Kitchen Sink Week!
Ten teams start the week at 0-2, already staring down the barrel of a lost season. Only 12.2% of such teams have rebounded to make the playoffs, and that means these teams have to throw all they've got into this week's games — everything but the kitchen sink.
Already the Dolphins are 0-3 after Thursday night, and the winless Chiefs and Giants play each other, so they're not eligible for Kitchen Sink Week. That leaves the Titans, Panthers, Browns, Saints, Bears, Texans and Jets as Kitchen Sink options — and we're betting four of them.
Let's start with the data right at the top.
Since 2010, 0-2 teams facing a non 0-2 team in Week 3 are an impressive 59-35-2 ATS (63%), with only one season in that stretch seeing the trend finish more than a game under .500. Bettors get overconfident after two weeks of data, and Week 3 is for the 'dogs.
Week 3 has the second-most upsets of any week of the season, per Clevta, and we're on a streak of 10 straight seasons where Week 3 favorites won fewer games than the pre-game win expectancy. We've also seen at least one favorite of five or more points upset outright in eight straight seasons, and even more lately, with four favorites of at least a touchdown losing outright in the last two seasons alone.
Those Kitchen Sink trends also have signals within.
The trend is better in divisional games, for example, and it's better if the 0-2 team was favored last week, or if its opponent was not. It's better for public sides and games with a total below 44, and it's especially great for 0-2 teams that scored at least 17 points each game.
I combed through all the data and ranked all eight eligible Kitchen Sink teams by how well they fit the team-agnostic trends:
- Carolina Panthers: 8.5 (of 10)
- Chicago Bears 7.5
- Houston Texans 7.0
- New York Jets 6.0
- Cleveland Browns 5.0
- New Orleans Saints 4.5
- Tennessee Titans 3.5
- Miami Dolphins 3.0
The Dolphins lost but covered the spread on Thursday, so Kitchen Sink teams are already 1-0 ATS — and that was our worst-fitting team!
Let's get to my Week 3 picks.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
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Falcons vs Panthers
Oh, you better believe it's going to feel gross betting some of these Kitchen Sink teams. And that's exactly the point — sometimes as a bettor, you have to make a bet that doesn't make any sense, sometimes even to yourself.
I can make a much easier case for the Falcons.
The Panthers' lone offensive strength was their line — now missing Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt with Ikem Ekwonu also banged up — and Atlanta's improved pass rush looked fearsome against an equally injured Minnesota line on Sunday night. T
The Panthers offense ranks near last in many offensive metrics, and the defense is just as bad last year, especially against the run — dangerous against Atlanta.
That's why this line rose all week, from Falcons -2.5 on Sunday morning all the way to -6.5 at one point. That's a huge swing — across the key number of three and another at six — and it's too far and represents overconfidence in a young Atlanta team.
Even after sweeping upgrades to the Falcons after an impressive win, I still have this number pretty close to where it was Sunday, about -3.
Are we sure the Falcons have an elite defense?
Atlanta ranks second by Defensive DVOA through two games, but it would be stunning to see them finish anywhere near that high.
This is a team starting third- and fourth-round rookies in its secondary, which will be without top corner A.J. Terrell on Sunday. That could be a problem against Panthers rookie WR Tet McMillan, who already looks like a star after hitting 100 yards last week.
It's also a good reminder to zoom out past the first two weeks. Division rivalries are tough, and these teams have split the season series in five consecutive seasons, with seven of those 10 games finishing within one score. That would likely do the trick for a cover here!
But look, more than anything else, this is just trusting the Week 3 Kitchen Sink trends and betting the number.
This is my highest-rated Kitchen Sink spot of 2025 because of so many sub-trends within the trend.
Kitchen Sink teams in division games are 75% ATS, and they're also 75% ATS with a total under 44 and 71% ATS if the opponent has scored under 27 points in both its games.
Atlanta's offense isn't putting up big numbers, and lower-scoring games are easier to cover, even through the backdoor. Kitchen Sink teams are also 70% ATS against 1-1 opponents and 68% for public sides, with the Panthers getting about two-thirds of the bets.
I don't like backing the Panthers either. It's gross!
That's exactly why we have to do it.
Pick: Panthers +6
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Jets vs Buccaneers
This time, the offensive line injuries help us.
The Bucs' offensive line is decimated. Stud LT Tristan Wirfs has yet to play this season and he looks unlikely for Week 3 — now, the entire right side of the line is out as well. RT Luke Goedeke is out indefinitely and young star RG Cody Mauch is out for the season.
A healthy Tampa line might have been the best in the league, but this is now a makeshift line and a huge downgrade, one that can have a cascading effect on the entire offense.
Baker Mayfield has not been good under pressure. Tampa Bay is also missing Calijah Kancey on its defensive line so that's a lot of beef in the trenches missing.
New York's big injury is Justin Fields.
Tyrod Taylor will get the start in Fields' place, but are we sure that's even a downgrade? Might it actually be an upgrade?
No Fields would limit the Jets' ceiling long term, but in the short term, Taylor is the much better passer — that opens up the offense, and he makes significantly fewer mistakes. That's a much better formula for an underdog.
The Jets have been the run-heaviest team in the NFL, probably not an ideal formula against Vita Vea and a very stout Bucs run defense — but Taylor could give the Jets more of an aerial threat and a potentially windy, rainy game could also keep things close.
This is an obvious letdown spot for the Bucs, who are playing on short rest after back-to-back miraculous late comeback wins. They also have the Eagles to look forward to next week.
Are we sure the Bucs are a full touchdown better?
By DVOA thus far, these teams are basically equal, with Tampa Bay at No. 19 and New York at No. 21, helped by a huge special teams advantage for the Jets, and that's before factoring in all those injuries.
I make this closer to a field goal, showing clear value on the Jets.
This is my fourth-best Kitchen Sink spot but has my single strongest indicator within the trend, with 0-2 teams (like the Jets) coming off a loss of 20 or more points an awesome 15-2 ATS (88%) in Week 3. This is also the top Luck Rankings side of the week, with such sides 75% ATS in Weeks 3 and 4.
You don't have to like the Jets. Just bet the spot, bet the number, bet against overconfidence with Jets +7 — and obviously be sure to grab the key number if you can.
You may want to touch the +280 moneyline (DraftKings) with a portion of your bet as well — 0-2 road underdogs since 2018 are 11-15 SU, an impressive record, and that includes 7-9 as 'dogs of 5+ points with an awesome 80% ROI.
Pick: Jets +7
Baker Mayfield Player Props: Interceptions Escalator
Everyone's buzzing about Baker Mayfield after two late-game comebacks and no interceptions yet — but he has been incredibly lucky to not throw a pick.
He leads the league with six Turnover Worthy Plays so far, per PFF, tied with Bo Nix, who has looked about as bad as any starter.
In fact, only six quarterbacks over half that many — an ugly list that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Bryce Young and J.J. McCarthy.
That makes this a great opportunity to buy low on a Mayfield interception, a rare chance to get in at a plus number at +105 (bet365).
Mayfield led the league last year with 16 interceptions. He threw at least one interception in over half his games each of the past two seasons for the Bucs, 56% of them overall, and that about matches his lifetime number with at least one pick in 60-of-105 starts, a 57% hit rate.
That should mean a clear minus number for interception odds, and we're getting plus money.
How about a little escalator, in case the regression all comes at once?
Mayfield is +525 to throw at least two interceptions (bet365). He did that five times last year even en route to the Bucs winning the division, and he's thrown at least two picks in 22-of-105 career starts, a 21% hit rate that should imply a number under +400.
Mayfield's teams are only 6-16 SU in those games with multiple interceptions. That makes sense, and since we're playing the Jets anyway, it's worth parlaying multiple interceptions with a Jets ML pick at +2275 (bet365) if your book allows it.
I also like betting Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions again at +2500 (bet365).
He did that last year, and the season still has a long ways to go in a wonky market.
The current leader in odds, Jake Browning, didn't even play Week 1 and may not start all season!
Mayfield had 16 INTs last year and also has seasons of 14 and 21 under his belt, so he can close in a hurry.
Buy the dip.
Picks:
- Baker Mayfield o0.5 interceptions +105 (1 unit)
- Mayfield 2+ INTs +525 (0.25 units) | Interceptions leader +2500 (0.25 units)
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Texans vs Jaguars
I know what we've seen through two weeks, but I still think the wrong team is favored here.
With a new coaching staff headed up by Liam Coen, the Jags have certainly shown some positive signs.
The Jaguars defense ranks top 12 by DVOA against both the run and the pass, and an offensive line widely panned as bottom five entering the season instead has three players ranked top five at their respective positions by PFF grade.
That's all well and good, but it's important to remember the context here.
Jacksonville has played Carolina and Cincinnati, which means those impressive defensive numbers have come against Bryce Young and Jake Browning, and those impressive offensive line metrics have come against two of the league's worst defensive lines.
That could mean Jacksonville is in for a rude awakening against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter as the Texans come to down.
The Texans have absolutely dominated this rivalry, winning 12 of the last 14 games, and that includes seven straight wins in Jacksonville.
Houston has the far superior defense and special teams on paper, and a couple weeks of information shouldn't be enough for us to completely flip on our priors there.
We do need Houston to find some offense, but this is an awesome trends spot for the Texans.
The Texans are a Kitchen Sink side, my No. 3 ranked one. Kitchen Sink teams are 75% ATS in the division. Houston was favored last week and Jacksonville was not, both good indicators, and the Jags are 1-1 and not scoring a ton.
The Texans are also 0-2 ATS, and that's its own type of Kitchen Sink, with such teams 61% ATS as road 'dogs in Week 3 and 64% ATS coming off a one-score loss.
There's a bunch of other trends suggesting Houston is the play, too — I've got 12 Texans trends to just one for Jacksonville.
It's typically a good idea to fade Trevor Lawrence outdoors and as a favorite, and it's also been profitable fading 1-1 home favorites in Week 3 coming off a loss, hitting at 64% ATS.
Give me Texans +2 (BetRivers). You can play the moneyline if you prefer, but remember, the Texans just covered +2 without winning.
This is also a great opportunity to bet on the Texans to win the AFC South at +300 (FanDuel). The Titans are also a Kitchen Sink team at home against the Colts this week, and if Tennessee and Houston both win before playing each other next week, the Texans could rebound and sit atop the division in no time at all.
Pick: Texans +2
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Packers vs Browns
This is another Kitchen Sink spot, with the Browns my No. 5, but we're going with the under instead — and really that's the only way Cleveland hangs around in this game.
It's hard to see the Browns scoring much. We've all seen just how dominant the Packers defense has been with Micah Parsons; Joe Flacco is in big trouble with this faulty Cleveland line.
But the Browns defense is pretty good!
Rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger have been instant impact guys. Cleveland sits top 10 in Defensive DVOA with the No. 1 run defense thus far, not to mention third in Defensive Success Rate.
The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest explosives, and that's important against a Packers offense that has attacked mercilessly down field early in the season. That can cause Green Bay to run hot and cold at times when the big plays aren't hitting.
The main thing the Kitchen Sink trends like here for Cleveland is the lower-scoring nature of the game. This is the lowest total on the board, and as good as the Packers have looked, they've topped out at 27 points in both games.
This may be a windy game as well. Windy unders have hit at 62% the last four seasons, and totals between 39 and 44 that drop at least a point are also 56% to the under over the past two decades.
Sometimes when a line like this one drops, that means just hopping aboard and making the same bet as the sharps: under 41.5.
Pick: Under 41.5
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Bengals vs Vikings
Carson Wentz! Jake Browning! Just the game everyone was hoping for!
Those two names alone will make this a stay-away for many bettors, but I think they represent opportunity. It's all about how you evaluate these quarterbacks and what them playing does to your power ratings for each team.
I do not want to hear again about how great Jake Browning is or how he's barely even a downgrade from Joe Burrow.
Get all the way out of here.
Burrow played as well as any QB last season, an upper, tip-top echelon QB on the level of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — and we'd just assume those teams' seasons were over, if any of them got hurt.
How much credit are we really giving an undrafted dude with seven starts?
Sure, Browning went 4-3 SU in those starts, but he played with training wheels and still made a ton of mistakes with seven interceptions and 21 sacks, problems we saw already last week. And those four wins? They came against C.J. Beathard, Gardner Minshew, Nick Mullens and Jeff Driskel. Congrats.
Wentz is the far more talented quarterback, a top-five talent and former MVP candidate. He can make plays with his legs, and he has plenty of arm talent to give Justin Jefferson and company a chance.
As bad as J.J. McCarthy has played, Wentz looks like an upgrade for the Vikings — not a downgrade.
I moved Minnesota half a point up with Wentz — and dropped the Bengals four or five points.
That means this line is way off, and I make it Vikings by just over a touchdown.
Don't forget, Kevin O'Connell won 34 games over the last three seasons despite over half of those games being started by his backup quarterback. This is the exact spot we've seen the Vikings succeed with any number of names at QB.
The Vikings are still a playoff contender, even with someone like Wentz at QB; the Bengals look like a bottom-10 team, with bottom-five blocking, defense and coaching.
Give me Vikings -2.5 (ESPN Bet) if it's available below the key number — -3 is also playable.
And let's invest in the Wentz Cinderella story while we're here.
Wentz will make his sixth start in six seasons for six different teams, a first in NFL history — the Eagles, Colts, Commanders, Rams, Chiefs and now his boyhood team, the Vikings.
And miss me with the poor Wentz numbers in recent years. He's played mostly Week 18 games with backups — his top receiver his last three games was Nikko Remigio, Davis Allen and Logan Thomas.
As a longtime Wentz fan since his high school days in Bismarck, North Dakota, I know the one thing he loves to do is call his own number at the goal line. Time and again, he ran that little quarterback draw in for a huge score for the North Dakota State Bison en route to a national championship.
Give me Wentz at +500 for an Anytime Touchdown (DraftKings), and how about the ultimate Cinderella story in your first start ever for the team you've loved all your life — Wentz Last TD + Vikings moneyline at +3700 (bet365) for the late winner that will have everyone talking!
Pick: Vikings -2.5
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Cowboys vs Bears
Some of the other underdogs on my card may feel grosser, but this is the bet I feel grossest about after hyping the Bears all preseason and already losing on them in both Weeks 1 and 2.
This is not that. I have officially abandoned Bears Island. I'm not betting Chicago to win the division or make the playoffs; I'm not doubling down, there are no escalators — but that doesn't mean we can't still bet them week-to-week in the right spot.
I made sweeping downgrades to the Bears after last week's embarrassment.
The run game takes a huge hit since D'Andre Swift just can't do anything right now despite what seems to be decent blocking. I also downgraded the line and made huge drops at linebacker and corner, where Chicago just can't get healthy with Jaylon Johnson out and both Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards still question marks.
Even after all that, I still make this Bears by over a field goal — and this is where it's helpful to remember what actually happened in those two Bears games so far, not just the endings.
In its first game, Chicago was dominating, up 17-6 after three quarters, before everything fell apart in the final stanza. Against the Lions, Chicago hung tough and was down one score until a couple wonky plays just before halftime.
Those endings matter, but so do the beginnings.
Chicago picked up a bunch of mid-game injuries and saw Dennis Allen's defense fall apart in both of those games, and an inexperienced Bears team let go of the string. It was bad, but the team did do good work early!
I'm not convinced the Cowboys defense is any better than Chicago's, and I still far prefer the Bears' coaching staff with Ben Johnson by far my favorite new hire and Brian Schottenheimer by far my least favorite.
We'll see who gets the best of the Matt Eberflus revenge spot, too, with Chicago more than familiar with how to attack the new Dallas defensive coordinator's unit.
That said, I still wouldn't be betting the Bears yet again if this wasn't such a strong Kitchen Sink spot — my second-best ranked one.
Remember, 0-2 Kitchen Sink teams are 63% ATS in Week 3 since 2010. They're 70% ATS against 1-1 teams like Dallas and 68% as public sides like the Bears.
This also hits my two very best Kitchen Sink trends. Teams that scored at least 17 points in each of their first two games (like the Bears) are 77% ATS, and teams coming off a loss of 20+ are 15-2 ATS (88%).
This is what Week 3 is all about — disgusting bets that make you feel sick — and it's the ultimate buy-low spot for a Bears team that got embarrassed by Ben Johnson's former squad last Sunday.
In the end, just think of it as betting on an 0-2 home underdog against a road favorite that's simply not that great.
Play Bears +1.5 or the best number available.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Rome Odunze Player Props: Receptions Escalator
The Cowboys and Bears defenses have been abysmal thus far.
These teams rank first and second in most points allowed to wide receivers — and that's despite Dallas facing an Eagles offense in the opener that's basically allergic to passing!
The Cowboys made up for lost time last week, allowing Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson to combine for 309 yards on 17 catches, with both guys seeing at least eight receptions and double-digit targets. Even worse, Dallas's top corner DaRon Bland is out Sunday.
Rome Odunze has looked like the guy in Chicago from the start of the preseason. He showed great chemistry with Caleb Williams throughout preseason action, and that's translated to the games so far.
Odunze had six catches in the opener on nine targets, and he followed that up with seven catches on 11 targets.
Compare that to Odunze's rookie season, when he topped seven targets only three times all season and where his high mark was six catches — his low this year!
Odunze and D.J. Moore are still being priced at 4.5 receptions each at books, but it seems clear that Odunze is Chicago's WR1.
Moore has only 11 targets total in two games for barely over 100 yards. And we know how valuable it is to be the WR1 in Ben Johnson's offense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions per game the last three years for Johnson. He was over 4.5 receptions in all but nine games across three seasons, with 6+ catches over three-fourths of the time and 8+ receptions over a third of the time.
Odunze is not St. Brown (yet), but he's proving why he was a top-10 draft pick and looking like a breakout star.
Let's play the receptions escalator all the way up. I love Odunze to go over 4.5 receptions (-122, FanDuel), and I'll play the next three escalator levels too: 6+ at +165, 7+ at +320, and 8+ at +600 (bet365).
Remember, both Giants receivers hit every one of those escalators last week!
Picks:
- Rome Odunze over 4.5 receptions (1 unit)
- 6+ receptions: +165 (0.5 units)
- 7+ receptions: +320 (0.25 units)
- 8+ receptions: +600 (0.25 units)
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Rams vs Eagles
I remain incredibly skeptical of Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and lean Rams on the number, but I do not like this matchup for L.A.
The Rams defense is improving rapidly against the pass, but that's in large part because of a defensive front loaded with small, speedy guys that do a great job getting after the quarterback. That's great in some matchups, but that same front got absolutely dominated in two games against the ginormous Philadelphia line last season, which overpowered the Rams and cruised on the ground.
Saquon Barkley ran for an incredible 460 yards in two games against the Rams last season — one in the regular season and one in the playoffs.
Barkley ran 26 times for 255 yards and a pair of scores in an easy 37-20 win in the regular season, breaking loose for runs of 70 and 72 yards.
Then, when everyone knew how badly that game had gone for this run defense and game planned accordingly, Barkley basically matched the feat in the playoffs: 26 runs for 205 yards and two scores with 62- and 78-yard runs.
L.A.'s run defense has been average so far, but that's against the weak rushing attacks and poor lines of the Titans and Texans. This is a different challenge, and the Rams have shown no ability to stop this rushing attack.
I'm not confident in the Eagles, but if they play well, it'll likely be because Barkley had another monster game with his offensive line ripping huge holes through the heart of the Rams defense.
I'm not looking for median Barkley outcomes for yardage. We want volume and a chance for him to rip off a long run or two.
So let's play that!
I'll skip over 18.5 rushing attempts and play 20+ attempts at +125 (bet365) as the first level of the escalator, then 25+ attempts at +550.
If Barkley does get that many touches, maybe he rips off another 60- or 70-yarder. Let's play 150+ yards at +850 and longest rush 50+ yards at +1400 (both bet365), and maybe even a little touch on 200+ yards at +4400 (DraftKings).
Those are absurd, irresponsible bets in most settings — but Barkley hit every one of those lines in both Rams games last year!
Third time's the charm?
Picks:
- 20+ carries +125 (0.75 units) | 25+ carries +550 (0.25 units)
- 150+ rushing yards +850 (0.2 units)
- 200+ yards +4400 (0.1 units)
- 50+ longest rush +1400 (0.2 units)
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Jaguars vs 49ers (Week 4 Lookahead Pick)
Typically the goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of this weekend's results to grab a line that won't be available later.
It feels like good vibes in Jacksonville, but that could shift if the Jaguars drop to 1-2 with a loss to the Texans, especially if we start to see more cracks between Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr., with Lawrence performing so erratically.
Jacksonville's offensive line has outperformed expectations, but it has a much tougher test against Houston's defensive front, and that will continue with Nick Bosa and rookie Mykel Williams waiting next week in San Francisco.
The 49ers could be 3-0 by then — and more importantly, it looks like they should have Brock Purdy back.
Purdy is practicing and could even play in Week 3, so it would be a surprise to see him sit Week 4 at this point, and I don't think this line has readjusted.
I make this San Francisco -5 even with Mac Jones in the lineup, so it jumps to over a touchdown with Purdy.
Miss me with your Jones is just as good as Purdy is take. Jones won last week but currently ranks 20th or worse among starting QBs in ADOT and CPOE and 31st in pressure-to-sack rate.
Give Purdy some credit for his growth — he doesn't take many sacks and he has an ability to create plays that Jones can't.
It's a gift getting this line right at -3, the key number.
Don't wait around and miss it next week.
Brandon's Week 3 Betting Card and Week 4 Lookahead Pick
- Panthers +6 (1 unit)
- Jets +7 (1 unit) | +280 ML (0.25 units)
- Baker Mayfield o0.5 interceptions +105 (1 unit)
- Mayfield 2+ INTs +525 (0.25 units) | Interceptions leader +2500 (0.25 units)
- Texans +2 (1 unit) | Texans to win AFC South +300 (0.5 units)
- Bears +1.5 (1 unit)
- Rome Odunze over 4.5 receptions (1 unit) | 6/+165 (0.5 units) | 7/+320 (0.25 units) | 8/+600 (0.25 units)
- Packers vs Browns under 41.5 (1 unit)
- Vikings -2.5 (1 unit)
- Carson Wentz Anytime TD +500 (0.25 units)
- Wentz Last TD & Vikings ML +3700 (0.1 unit)
- Saquon Barkley rushing escalator
- 20+ carries +125 (0.75 units) | 25+ carries +550 (0.25 units)
- 150+ rushing yards +850 (0.2 units) | 50+ longest rush +1400 (0.2 units) | 200+ yards +4400 (0.1 unit)
- Week 4 Lookahead: 49ers -3 vs Jaguars (1.5 units)
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