NFL Week 4 Player Props: Pick for Breece Hall in Jets vs Steelers
Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images. Pictured: Breece Hall.
Breece Hall Player Prop
| Prop | Breece Hall Over 60.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-110) |
| Matchup | Jets vs. Steelers |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Technically, rookie running back Breece Hall sits as the RB2 on the Jets' depth chart, with incumbent Michael Carter labeled as the starter. However, we’re starting to catch a glimpse of what the Jets envisioned for Hall when they invested the 36th pick on him in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Between the two backs, Hall has been more effective thus far. His 5.3 yards per carry is superior to Carter’s 4.4, as is his yards per target (4.8 vs. 4.6).
Last week, Hall led the Jets backfield in snap count for the first time. While the advantage was small (40 vs. 38), any bump in Hall’s snap share could lead to an imminent breakout.
But for this line, we don’t need to rely on more snaps. Hall has compiled lines of 61, 60 and 92 scrimmage yards in three games. He’s been handed the ball or targeted on 45% of his snaps, greatly outpacing Carter’s 34%. It’s clear that when Hall is in the game, he’s going to get the ball.
The Steelers present a positive matchup for the Iowa State product. Pittsburgh’s rush defense has struggled without the injured T.J. Watt. In the four games he’s missed dating back to last season, opposing running backs have averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
Through the air, the Steelers profile as below average covering running backs, as suggested by their 20th-ranked pass defense DVOA against the position (per Football Outsiders). Zach Wilson will be back under center for the Jets, and he targeted his running backs at a 19% rate last season.
I’m rolling with the combination line here, mainly because of game script uncertainties. But no matter how you shake it, Hall is in a great spot. I have the rookie’s yardage projected in the high 60s.
Pick: Breece Hall Over 60.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-110; play to 63.5)
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