NFL Week 4 Predictions, Luck Rankings: The Sunday Total To Bet
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 3, and based on this week's games, there are four games where luck is a significant factor.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-58-6 (63.5%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018 if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- Is at least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent
Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups went 3-1 ATS last week, moving to 7-4-2 ATS on the year.
That said, there are no luck matchups this week. The Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts is the closest with a Luck Difference of 21 and Luck Gap of 45.6%.
However, starting this week, we can also use our Luck Totals. Games show significant value on the over or under if they meet one of the following criteria after Week 3:
- Luck Total above 10 (over)
- Luck Total below -10 (under)
NFL Luck Rankings Week 4 Luck Total
With a Luck Total of -21.4, this is the single largest Luck Total discrepancy in Week 4 or later since the start of 2018. The next two largest luck discrepancies in absolute value were a +15.5 (over) and a -15.5 (under) with both games' totals hitting in the correct directions.
In all, since the start of 2018, Luck Totals are 27-12 (69.2%) from Week 4 to the end of the season, with Luck Unders going 14-7 (66.7%) in that span.
Both teams contribute equally to this under, with the Broncos' Luck Team Total at -10.6 while the Bears' Luck Team Total of -10.7 is the lowest of the week. That means even if one team were to outperform their expectation this week, there's still a decent chance that if the other just meets expectation this game can still hit the under.
Earlier this week, predictive analyst Nick Giffen wrote that he'd wait for the total to hit 46.5 before betting it. The total has indeed risen back to 46.5, and with more tickets and money coming in on the over even at 46.5, it may be possible to see a 47 before kickoff.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 4 Matchups
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