NFL Picks for Week 4: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Payton.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-58-6 (63.5%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 3, the four teams that met at least one of the two thresholds went 3-1 ATS (75%).
I personally went 2-1 in last week's pass/wait/play piece, choosing to pass on the Browns as the unlucky team to cover against the Titans. However, my bonus pick — a Luck Total where I chose the under in the Monday Night Football matchup between the Buccaneers and Eagles — was a hit. That moves me to 6-3-1 ATS on luck sides and 1-0 on Luck Totals for the year.
For Luck Totals the thresholds are:
- A differential above 10 or below -10.
By using our PRO Projections and PRO Report in conjunction with the Luck Rankings, I was able to get positive closing line value in two of the three luck sides I picked, as well as the Luck Total.
With that thought in mind, I'm doing a pass/wait/play segment to time the market on these Luck Matchups as best as possible each week.
So, here's pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 4.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 4 Games
With no luck matchups meeting our thresholds this week, we turn to the one Luck Total that is.
The Broncos and Bears game has a Luck Total of -21.4, putting it well beyond the -10 threshold for a Luck Under. In fact, this absolute value of 21.4 is the single largest number from Week 4 to end of season in the past six years, with two games reaching an absolute value of 15.5 as the next closest. Both of those Luck Totals hit, with one being a +15.5 over and one a -15.5 under.
It should be easy to see, from the Broncos side, why this game could play toward the under. The Broncos allowed 70 points to Miami in a woeful effort a week after allowing 35 points to the Sam Howell-led Commanders. It appears this team has no defensive ability right now.
But it should be clear these performances fall way below expectation. Replaying those games over again, it's expected Denver would have given up 76.3 points in those two games instead of 105.
Week 1 is probably a better example of where the Broncos' defensive unit stands. They held the Raiders to 17 points and were expected to give up 15. Yes, the Raiders offense is by far the worst of the three that Denver has faced, but the Bears may be worse.
While the Bears offense has outscored the Raiders by two points through three games, Chicago has actually had a significantly lower offensive Expected Score. The Bears are fourth worst in Expected Score offensively through three weeks while the Raiders are 10th.
On the flip side, the Bears defense has also been atrocious, allowing the second-most points against, behind only the Broncos. However, like Denver, the expectation has been to give up far less.
That's mostly because in Week 1 Green Bay put up 38 points compared to 22 expected. Seven points weren't even on the defense as Quay Walker had a pick-six off Justin Fields.
Thankfully for Chicago, Denver hasn't exactly been good offensively. The Broncos rank 21st in Expected Score compared to 15th in actual points scored. That puts Denver's offense a bit on the lucky side. At least six of those points over expectation come from a Hail Mary to close the game against Washington.
With both defenses quite a bit unlucky, it's nice that they contribute nearly equally to this under. If one or the other has a bad performance, the other team that's still just meeting expectations puts this game in under territory.
If you follow me in the Action App, you'll see I took under 46.5 on Monday.
According to our PRO Report, there was a sharp move when this game hit 45.5, pushing it back to 46. At 46, the bigger money has been on the under. That means it's teetering right on the edge of where it should end up.
Right now the weather forecast for the game looks good, so there's a chance we see 46.5 again, especially with the public backing the over at 46 and sharp resistance at 45.5.
Verdict: Wait at 46 for a possible under 46.5, but this is a play if it's still 46 come game time.
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