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NFL Wild Card Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Dolphins vs Bills, More

NFL Wild Card Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Dolphins vs Bills, More article feature image
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Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase (left), Joe Burrow (right).


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NFL Wild Card Sunday Odds & Picks

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Dolphins vs Bills: First Score Type
1 p.m. ET
Ravens vs. Bengals: To Score First and Win
8:15 p.m. ET
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Pick
 First Score Type — Touchdown (-170)
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: This is a prop where books offer identical – or very similar – lines on nearly every game. However, there are some clear trends behind the first type score that we can exploit.

Over the last two seasons, all games with a spread of seven or more, but a total of 44 or less, had a touchdown as the first score just under 70% of the time. That works out to implied odds of about -230. Assuming those things correlate with the spread and/or total, that’s a fairly nice edge in and of itself.

Additionally, both the Bills and Dolphins rank inside the top 10 in red zone touchdown rate on the season, which helps make this a bit more likely.

I’m also betting “team to score first wins” at -200 on this game, as mentioned in the 49ers-Seahawks writeup.


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Pick
Bengals To Score First and Win (-122)
Best Book
Time
8:15 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: In addition to the “team that scores first wins” prop on BetMGM that I’m targeting in a few spots this weekend, there’s an edge on betting the Bengals specifically in this game. In games with comparable spreads and totals, the favorite both scores first and wins nearly 60% of the time.

That works out to implied odds of just under -150, so -122 is just over a five percent edge. That’s a slightly bigger edge than the BetMGM version of this bet, so if only betting one, take the Bengals version at FanDuel in this game.

Pick: Bengals to Score First and Win

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