Nick Chubb Player Props: Expert Pick for Patriots vs Browns

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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards

I don’t think we’re talking enough about Nick Chubb. Amongst all the noteworthy storylines so far this season, there hasn’t been much chatter about the league's leading rusher.

Whether he’s stirring up conversations or not, there’s no debate about how good the Browns running back has been — Chubb has 593 yards in five games, with a whopping 113-plus yards in four of those contests.

The Georgia product’s dominance is two-fold. Amongst running backs, he ranks seventh with 3.1 yards before contact per carry, and sixth with 3.0 yards after contact per carry (per Pro Football Reference). So not only is he getting a good push from his offensive line, but he’s been able to muster extra yards even as the defense converges.

With the Patriots coming into town, Chubb is treated to another plus matchup. New England’s rush defense ranks 30th according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, compared to just 11th defending the pass. The Patriots defensive line has also allowed 1.5 yards before contact, the fifth highest mark in the league.

Only having played against two formidable rushing attacks (the Packers and Ravens), New England allowed 199 and 188 yards on the ground in those matchups, respectively. With the Browns representing the NFL’s premiere rushing attack, Chubb should be primed for another 100-plus-yard game.

With uncertainty at quarterback for the Patriots, I expect the Browns to remain in neutral or positive game script situations throughout. I have Chubb projected around 105 yards on the ground.