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Raiders-Cardinals Betting Preview: Can You Trust Arizona to Cover as a Favorite?

Nov 18, 2018 12:35 PM EST

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals

  • Spread: Cardinals -5.5
  • Over/Under: 41 
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Things aren’t looking good for the Raiders, who are getting only 35% of bets at the time of writing (see live odds here) as a 5.5-point dog against a Cardinals team that struggles to score in the double digits.

The public love, along with a steam move at -4.5, has helped Arizona move all the way from -3 to -5.5 at BookMaker. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: This is the ultimate battle between trend and perception.

The Raiders have scored fewer than seven points in consecutive games — six points against Chargers last week and three against the 49ers the week before that — making them the second team this season to accomplish that “feat.” (The Bills were the first.)

The 24 teams that have scored fewer than seven points in consecutive games since 2005 are 16-8 against the first-half spread in their following games, covering the spread by 2.8 points per game, per our Bet Labs dataEvan Abrams

Officiating report: Jerome Boger will be the head official in Glendale. In the 158 games he’s officiated over the past decade (including playoffs), the over is 92-65-1 (58.6%), making him by far the most profitable official to the over since 2008.

In the 29 games featuring two teams under .500 that he’s officiated over that span, the over is 19-10 (65.5%), profiting bettors 8.3 units. Since 2011, the over is 15-3 (83.3%) in this spot, eclipsing the total by 6.6 points per game. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Arizona’s line advantages

The Cardinals’ defensive line, which ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, has the chance to absolutely dominate a Raiders’ offensive line that has looked lifeless.

The Cardinals have 29 sacks through 10 weeks, the sixth-most in the NFL. That also happens to be the number of sacks the Raiders have given up, the seventh-highest figure in the league. Defensive end Chandler Jones could be in for a monster day.

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chandler Jones

Meanwhile, Arizona’s offensive line has also struggled, but Oakland’s defensive line, which that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate, just doesn’t have the personnel to exploit that deficiency.

The Raiders have a league-low eight sacks. EIGHT. Only one other team has fewer than 15 (Giants, 10). Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Raiders

Neither team is expected to have big losses to deal with. The only Cardinals not expected to suit up are wide receiver Chad Williams (ankle), kicker Phil Dawson (hip) and left guard Mike Iupati (back).

The Raiders have ruled out Martavis Bryant (knee) and already declared Jordy Nelson (knee) questionable, but they’re otherwise expected to be at their version of full strength.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Since Byron Leftwich took over as the Cardinals’ play-caller two games ago, Johnson has seen 20 and 28 touches, along with four and nine targets.

Johnson has a very exploitable matchup this week, as the Raiders rank 26th in Pro Football Focus’ run-defense grades, while allowing 141.0 rushing yards per game on the ground.

Johnson boasts a solid 18.7-point median projection on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating.Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Raiders +5.5

Oakland is bad, and bettors know it.

The Raiders are 2-7 against the spread, which helps explain why 66% of spread tickets are on the 5-3-1 Cardinals. But bad ATS teams have been profitable against good ATS teams.

Since 2003, teams that have covered the spread in 30% or less of games, like the Raiders, have gone 244-187-14 (57%) ATS when playing an opponent that has covered 60% or more of their games, like the Cardinals.

The Action Network’s NFL simulations have Arizona winning on average by 2.1 points. Oakland is undervalued in Week 11. John Ewing


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Derek Carr, David Johnson

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