Packers vs. Chargers Odds & Picks: Trust Green Bay To Cover?

Packers vs. Chargers Odds & Picks: Trust Green Bay To Cover? article feature image

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

  • The Green Bay Packers are road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.
  • Our experts break down the betting odds, a key matchup and a spread pick.

Packers at Chargers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Packers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Public bettors are all over the Green Bay Packers, who are attracting 88% of tickets and 93% of money for Sunday’s matchup at the Los Angeles Chargers. But is all the love deserved at this price?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, complete with a look at the biggest mismatch and a staff spread pick.

Packers-Chargers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

The Packers have an absurd amount of players on their injury report, but they did the same thing last week and only one ended up sitting: Davante Adams (toe), who has since returned to limited practice. We’ll have a better idea of his status on Friday.

After reportedly almost missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury, Keenan Allen is back to practicing in full, so fantasy owners can take a sigh of relief. DL Brandon Mebane (knee) still hasn’t returned to practice, suggesting he’ll miss another game. His potential absence is good news for Aaron Jones’ outlook. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Chargers OT Sam Tevi vs. Preston or Za’Darius Smith

One of the biggest reasons for the transformation of the Packers defense this season has been the signing of the Smiths, Preston and Za’Darius, who have combined for 15 sacks and rank inside the top 20 among edge rushers in almost every single statistical category that pertains to generating pressure.

Preston Smith
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Preston Smith

They should both make their presence known throughout Sunday, especially considering Philip Rivers generally waits until the last second to snap the ball, which can give a slight edge to rushers getting a better jump off the snap. And Rivers has been under pressure a ton this season. In fact, only Jared Goff has had more dropbacks under pressure than Rivers, who has been hit a league-high 28 times (the next highest is Miami’s combined 20).

Per Football Focus, only three teams rank below 80 in pass rushing productivity: The Chargers, Dolphins and Rams.

No matter how you split it, the Chargers’ offensive line has been dreadful and injuries certainly haven’t helped with continuity. The biggest problem has been at tackle as they’ve had arguably the worst tandem in football in Trent Scott and Tevi up until last week.

However, Pro Bowl tackle Russell Okung returned last week, and the 31-year-old didn’t miss a beat, finishing with a pass-blocking grade of just below 85. His presence will be a tremendous help a potentially new-look Chargers offense under new coordinator Shane Steichen.

Worrying about one weak tackle, especially the one who isn’t on River’s blind side, allows you to do so much more on offensive than if you have to worry about both bookends.

Rewatching the Chargers-Bears game for my final takeaways piece, which will be out tomorrow. But this is a tweet devoted to offensive tackle Russell Okung and how much of a difference-maker he is for the offensive line as a whole.

— Gavino Borquez (@GavinoBorquez) October 28, 2019

Still, the Chargers have to worry about the right side of that offensive line with Tevi going up against whichever Smith lines up on that side — they’ll play on both — and the pressure Green Bay inevitably floods there as well.

One key turnover or a few sacks to get the Chargers in third-and-long situations could flip this game against a rolling Packers team. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -2.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

PRO System Match

The Chargers offense is struggling — Rivers and Co. have been held to 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games.

As a result, LA is a small home underdog to Green Bay, and there’s lopsided action on the Packers to cover. While this may seem like a good time to fade the Chargers inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued, especially against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 160-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,326 following this strategy. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Chargers +3.5

This is a good time to buy an undervalued team Chargers team while selling the Packers, who I’ve been high on since the beginning of the season but are now getting a little too much love in the market.

Green Bay was my only preseason Super Bowl future, but I have to call it like I see it: This team has been very fortunate all season, from a pretty lucky win over the Vikings to getting a significantly undermanned-Chiefs team last week.

The Chargers offense hasn’t been pretty, but as I mentioned above, getting Okung back will do wonders. Plus, Melvin Gordon finally has a few games under his belt after missing so much time, so you should start to see more production out of the Wisconsin product as he gets up to game speed. And there are still some major holes in the Packers run defense, which is allowing 4.8 yards per carry (28th in the NFL).

The Chargers also hired a new offensive coordinator, which can only help. It’ll also serve as an element of surprise working in their favor as the Packers will have no idea what changes and new wrinkles are coming.

The Chargers defense has also been decimated by injuries, but you’re starting to see some improvement from a lot of the replacements after getting some valuable experience. This is still a unit with a formidable pass rush and two rock-solid corners in Desmond King in the slot and Casey Hayward on the outside.

Also, for whatever reason, the Chargers have consistently started slow in recent seasons and then turned it around about this time. Not surprisingly, Rivers is 8-2 ATS over the past three Novembers.

I also think the Chargers are a solid teaser piece, taking them from +3 or +3.5 up to +9 or +9.5. Despite their 3-5 record, they’ve been in every game. Throwing out a blowout win over the winless Dolphins, their other seven games have been decided by one score.

Rivers has been profitable as an underdog throughout his career at 42-31-4 ATS (57.5%) for an excellent 12.8% ROI. And if you teased the Chargers in all of those games, he would’ve covered the tease 82% of the time.

Like most Chargers games, I expect this to come down to the final possession, so I love the tease option — I personally teased them with the Jags — and grabbing over a field goal with the home dog. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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