NFL Odds & Picks: How To Bet Packers vs. Saints Spread & Total On Sunday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees
Packers vs. Saints Odds
Green Bay has jumped out to a 2-0 start behind a record-setting offensive pace. The Packers lead the league in scoring, averaging an absurd 42.5 points per game. However, they’ve done so against two teams that have yet to win a game.
This will mark the Packers’ first real test of the season against a New Orleans Saints team that has looked a bit off over the first two weeks.
Let’s take a closer look at this Sunday Night football showdown.
Green Bay Packers
There’s no doubt that Green Bay’s offense has been humming through two weeks.
Look no further than these two tidbits:
- The Packers became just the third team in NFL history to score 40 points in each of their first two games of a season.
- They also joined the 1991 Bills as the only two teams to ever eclipse 85 points and 1,000 yards in the first two weeks of the season.
Still, it’s been humorous to watch the perception of the Packers shift after just two weeks.
First, it was all about how much they over-performed last season. Then the conversation shifted to jokes about their failure to improve the team in the 2020 draft. I agreed with both of those sentiments.
Well, after two weeks, the public narrative has already done a complete 180 as the Packers are now apparently ready to contend for a Super Bowl.
What exactly happened? They beat the Vikings and Lions, two winless teams that have been decimated by injuries, especially in the secondary. You gotta love the extreme weekly perception swings in this league.
New Orleans Saints
Meanwhile, everybody just watched the Saints lay an egg on Monday Night Football in a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas. I faded the Saints that game, but this overreaction is severe.
New Orleans also wasn’t very crisp in its season-opening win against Tampa Bay, but that was a very misleading box score thanks to special teams and turnovers.
I expect the Saints to rebound at home Sunday night in a good buy-low spot: Expect a much sharper product from the Saints after last week’s loss. Sean Payton should have them ready to roll from the jump.
For you trend players, history suggests a strong bounce back as Payton is 30-18 (62.5%) against the spread after a loss for an impressive 22.4% Return On Investment, covering by an average of 3.57 points per game. He’s the third-most profitable coach out of 128 in our Bet Labs database since 2003.
How the Packers & Saints Matchup
Things won’t come as easy this week for Aaron Rodgers, who will face a real NFL secondary — not one full of rookies — for the first time this season. The Saints actually have corners capable of hanging with wide receiver Davante Adams, who is officially listed as doubtful.
Even after giving a small bump to the Packers (although not much based on opponents), accounting for Drew Brees’ issues and Michael Thomas being ruled out, I still make this line New Orleans -4.9 at home after a short week.
In regards to Brees, his slow start definitely should cause concern in the Big Easy. The aging QB has displayed worrying signs in recent seasons, but primarily later in the season. Struggling this early raises more red flags.
Everybody can see the arm strength has deteriorated, but that isn’t super important in New Orleans’ short-passing attack offense. However, accuracy is critical, and that simply hasn’t been there for Brees through two games. Maybe it’s more rust than age, but I tend to think he’s going downhill quicker than most realize.
Even taking a less accurate Brees and Thomas’ absence into consideration, the Saints still boast one of the NFL’s most talented and deepest rosters on both sides of the ball. They just happened to play an awful game full of sloppy mistakes in Vegas. Those happen.
The short passing attack and especially the running game should excel with ease against a Packers defense that can still be gashed on the ground. Green Bay’s poor run defense has gotten off the hook in the first two weeks as a result of big leads throughout, which plays right into its defense’s hands.
After going through drills in practice on Thursday, defensive tackle Kenny Clark (questionable) could return to action on Sunday night to give Green Bay’s run defense a boost. However, it’s still not certain that he’ll suit up, and even if he does, this is still a very vulnerable run defense overall.
I don’t envision the Packers ever running away with this game. If they do, I’ll tip my cap.
I bet Saints -3 (-110) earlier in the week, but I would bet them at anything under 4. Of course getting the 3 is ideal — it’s available at multiple books as of writing (shop for the best line with our NFL odds page), but if you don’t have access to 3, I would pay up to 15 cents to grab it.
As for the total, I like the under at anything 52 or higher. Assuming both Adams is ultimately ruled out like Thomas, both teams will be limited from a downfield passing perspective. As a result, I expect heavy ground-based game scripts from both. And this Saints defense can match up with Green Bay’s offense — especially without Adams.
PICKS: Saints -3; Under 53