Patrick Mahomes Player Props: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Pick

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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

What happens when an immovable object faces off against an unstoppable force? We’re about to find out on Sunday night.

Okay, maybe I’m being a tad dramatic, but we do have an interesting matchup with the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

Tampa’s defense ranks at the top of the board in most pass defense metrics thus far in the young season. As for the Chiefs … they have Patrick Mahomes, who continues to show the world he is very good at football.

The perceived matchup drove this line down to 260.5 yards, and I’m hopping on the over. The Bucs pass defense is legit, but they haven’t faced off against a passing offense that prioritizes the aerial attack. With Tampa possessing a tough run defense, Kansas City is going to lean on their star quarterback.

As for Mahomes, he’s adjusted to life without Tyreek Hill quite nicely. He’s hit the over on this line in 2-of-3 games. And dating back to 2020, when the Chiefs face a top-10 rush defense (as the Bucs are), he’s averaged a whopping 335 yards per game, compared to 285 yards outside of that split.

While yards will be a bit harder to come by, I still love the Chiefs to toss the ball around plenty. Plus, with Tom Brady and the Bucs getting most of their big-name offensive weapons back, this game could profile as a shootout.

I have Mahomes projected at 285 yards and would play this up to over 270.5 yards.