Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Odds & Picks: Can NE Cover This Historic Spread?

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Odds & Picks: Can NE Cover This Historic Spread? article feature image
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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports.Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) at Hard Rock Stadium.

Patriots at Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Odds: 18.5
  • Total: 48.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet all Week 2 NFL spreads at reduced juice (-105).

Fun fact: The Patriots are 1-5 in their last six road games in Miami dating back to 2013, including a last-play miracle win in 2018. Still, the Patriots are favored by 18.5 points over the lowly Dolphins after both teams were on opposite sides of huge blowouts in Week 1.

An even more fun fact: As of Thursday evening, more than 70% of betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover a nearly three touchdown spread on the road.

Our experts break this matchup down from every angle, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and our staff’s favorite picks.

Patriots-Dolphins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots don’t have anyone noteworthy on their injury report leading up to their game in Miami.

However, the Dolphins have a few starters who haven’t practiced this week: Albert Wilson (calf), linebacker Trent Harris (Foot) and safety Reshad Jones (ankle) have all been absent this week.

The Patriots are -3000 on the moneyline. Good luck, Miami. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -15.5
  • Projected Total: 48.5

This is a fascinating matchup to handicap.

The public will be backing New England here all the way. The Dolphins got creamed by 49 points while the Pats blew-out the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The key here will be to see where the sharps resistance comes into play.

I don’t think anyone wants to take the Dolphins, but when it comes to setting an imaginary number of points to give them, there will come a point when the Dolphins become the sharp play. I’m guessing once we get to +20 or +20.5, you’ll see sharp action bet it down.

I don’t think it will get to +21, but I’ll be willing to bite the bullet here and back the worst team in the league against the best team in the league. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots’ Run Offense vs. Dolphins’ Run Defense

Last year, the Patriots were one of the best running teams in the league, and a lot of their success was attributable to the play along their offensive line, which ranked No. 2 with a run-blocking grade of 72.1 (per Pro Football Focus) and No. 3 with 5.03 adjusted line yards per carry (per Football Outsiders).

The Pats were No. 4 with a stuffed rate of just 15.9% and avoided negative yardage on a vast majority of their running plays. Under offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, the Pats are consistently strong at getting movement in the running game.

Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sony Michel

As for the Dolphins, they are already in full-on tank mode. In Week 1, they allowed the Ravens to steamroll them for a league-high 59 points, 46 carries and 265 yards rushing.

On defense, they’re in the middle of tearing down and rebuilding the unit, which means that they are incredibly naked right now, especially in the run game.

Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. I don’t even know who’s starting in their place — but I do know it doesn’t matter.

Against the Patriots’ run game, the Dolphins will look defenseless. — Matthew Freedman

Expert Pick

John Ewing: Dolphins +18.5

This line is crazy.

The Patriots thumped the Steelers and the Dolphins got rolled by the Ravens in Week 1, but no team (not even the reigning Super Bowl champions) deserves to be nearly three touchdown favorites on the road.

Historically, large road favorites have not performed well for bettors.

Since 2003, road favorites of seven or more points have gone 122-144-6 (45.9%) against the spread and teams favored by double-digits on the road have gone 34-47 (42.0%) ATS. The Patriots (-19 at Ravens on Dec. 3, 2007) were the largest road favorite since 2003 and they failed to cover.

History says bettors should be careful backing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and so does the math.

The Action Network NFL simulations project the Pats to win by 10.8 points on average. The public loves New England, but will likely be disappointed by the results on Sunday.