Patriots vs. Ravens Odds & Picks: Sunday Night Football Upset Brewing?

Patriots at Ravens Odds & Picks

• Odds: Patriots -3
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The public is all over the New England Patriots, with 73% of tickets and 58% of money coming in on Tom Brady and Co. And it makes sense — they're tied for the best against-the-spread record at 6-2 this season.

But are they being overvalued as road favorites against the Baltimore Ravens?

Our experts break down this Sunday Night Football matchup, complete with a staff pick.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

Early in the week Marquise Brown (ankle) was trending toward playing, but then he missed practice on Friday, adding some uncertainty to his availability. The Ravens also have some injuries in the secondary as Earl Thomas (knee) and Jimmy Smith (knee) are listed as questionable. However, both are expected to play.

If active, Smith would be making his first appearance since he was hurt in Week 1.

The Patriots have a habit of listing a lot of players as questionable, and that's the story again this week. Julian Edelman (chest) and Rex Burkhead (foot) are both expected to play. Although, James White (toe) was a surprise addition to the injury report on Friday. Burkhead could be in line for some more passing down work if White sits this one out. — Justin Bailey

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Patriots -4
• Projected Total: 46

PRO System Match

The Patriots have been one of the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in six of their eight games. The Ravens, on the other hand, have struggled to cash tickets only covering in two games.

A majority of spread tickets are on the Patriots to cover as road favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here), but history suggests gamblers shouldn't expect each team to continue their covering ways.

Against the spread records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it's been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 170-104-9 (62%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,668 following this strategy.

Bettors are counting the Ravens out against the Patriots, but history suggests Baltimore can cover.— John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Ravens +3 or Better

I make this game a pick'em and love the matchup on both sides of the ball with the Ravens defensive scheme and elite rushing attack — you can read my full analysis here. As a result, I played Baltimore +4 earlier in the week and would happily take anything at +3 or better.

The Patriots could certainly win and cover again as I'm sure Bill Belichick will have something special in store for Lamar Jackson and Co. There's a reason the Patriots continually exceed market expectations and cover more than 62% of the time under Belichick, even with everyone wanting to bet them each week. But I trust the Ravens here and can't pass up the line value.

These teams have played plenty of big games against each other in the past, and they've been close battles more often than not. Expect another intriguing chess match and don't sleep on the special teams advantage the Ravens should hold, especially at kicker.

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