The Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) and New York Giants (1-4) open Week 6 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football on October 9. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. TNF will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Eagles are favored by 7 points on the spread over the Giants (Eagles -7); the game total is 40.5. The Eagles are -380 moneyline favorites and the Giants are +320 underdogs.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Eagles vs Giants prediction.
Eagles vs Giants Prediction
- Eagles vs Giants pick: Giants +7.5
My Eagles vs Giants best bet is on the Giants to cover the spread (+7.5). Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Eagles vs Giants Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
Eagles vs Giants Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Eagles Have the Ball
The Eagles are 4-1, but the offense has been shaky; they rank 14th in offensive DVOA, 19th in points per drive (2.04), and third worst in yards per drive (23.1).
Despite the record, there has already been internal tension, with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith voicing frustration with their usage.
Last week against the Broncos, Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo reacted by dialing up his most aggressive game plan of the season with a +22% pass rate over expected — the highest weekly mark by any team in 2025. It worked early as the Eagles jumped to a 17-3 lead but collapsed late in a 21-17 loss.
I expect them to pivot back to a more run-heavy attack and lean on Saquon Barkley against his former team, especially since the Giants rank last in run defense DVOA.
However, LG Landon Dickerson has been ruled out, which forces Brett Toth into the lineup and weakens the offensive line.
The Giants' defensive front is one of the best units on paper. They rank fourth in pressure rate, but only 22nd in sack rate. Pressure is far more predictive than sacks, so they are due for positive regression.
Rookie Abdul Carter is on the verge of breaking out. He has just 0.5 sacks entering TNF, but he is tied for the league lead with 15 quick pressures, which is the most predictive metric for sacks.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts ranks 13th among 33 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback from a clean pocket, but drops to 22nd when pressured. The Giants front should be able to disrupt him enough to slow down the passing attack.
When the Giants Have the Ball
Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart is now 1-1 as a starter after a rough three-turnover outing in a loss to the Saints.
Growing pains were expected given the transition from Ole Miss’ spread-heavy scheme, but head coach Brian Daboll has done a good job tailoring the offense to Dart’s strengths by leaning into his rushing ability. Dart is scrambling on 17% of his dropbacks, which ranks sixth among qualified quarterbacks.
With Malik Nabers out for the season and Darius Slayton also ruled out for TNF, I fully expect Daboll to lean on the Dart/Cam Skattebo rushing combo to move the chains. The Eagles rank 21st in run defense DVOA, making this a viable path.
Giants LT Andrew Thomas being healthy is a major factor here — he has allowed a league-low 1.2% pressure rate among all tackles. His presence is critical for a raw rookie QB like Dart.
If Thomas were to miss time at any point, the Giants offense would be in real trouble.
Eagles vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Eagles deserve to be favorites, but the Giants are live to keep this close — especially with the key number of +7.5 still on the board.
The Giants also grade out as an “A” team in our Luck Rankings, which historically hits around 60% when backing the “unlucky” side in matchups like this. Around 65-70% of public action is on Philadelphia, but some books have already ticked down to +7 — a sign that sharp money is on the Giants.
I expect the Giants' defensive line to generate enough pressure to disrupt Jalen Hurts. Landon Dickerson’s absence is a real downgrade for the Eagles' front, and New York should be able to lean on a run-heavy approach against a run funnel defense.
One underrated edge: Giants punter/kickoff man Jamie Gillan has mastered the new kickoff rule and currently forces the league’s worst average starting field position at 19.4 yards.
Hidden yardage could quietly matter in what could be a lower-scoring game and just one of the many reasons why I think it makes sense to take the points here.
Pick: Giants +7.5
Spread
The Giants to cover the spread is my best bet for this game.
Moneyline
While the Giants have the goods to keep this game close, I won't be backing them on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
