The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) will face off in NFL Week 10 tonight on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Bengals are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 49.5 total points. The Bengals are -178 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Steelers are +150 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs Bengals predictions and Sunday Night Football picks for November 15.
Steelers vs Bengals Prediction
- Steelers vs Bengals pick: Over 49.5 (FanDuel)
My Steelers vs Bengals best bet is on the Over 49.5, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Steelers vs Bengals Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -178 |
- Steelers vs Bengals Spread: Steelers +3.5, Bengals -3.5
- Steelers vs Bengals Total: 49.5
- Steelers vs Bengals Moneyline: Steelers +150, Bengals -178
Steelers vs Bengals Sunday Night Football Preview
As is tradition, Joe Burrow and the Bengals started the season slowly before turning it on and becoming one of the league’s most dangerous offenses. Impressively, Burrow has led his team to an NFL-high 3.0 points per drive over the past six games, with much of this being done without the assistance of a consistent rushing attack.
The Steelers rank fifth in expected points added (EPA) per rush defensively, while the Bengals rank 24th in the same metric as an offense. This does not really factor into the handicap because Pittsburgh’s strength in this instance does not really limit the Bengals' ability to sustain drives. Cincinnati has struggled to run the ball all season, yet it is the best team in the league converting third downs, boasting a 53% rate.
Additionally, Burrow’s precision has also allowed the Bengals to convert on 3rd-and-longs at the league’s highest rate. The lack of a rushing attack on early downs is inconsequential. The question for the Steelers defense becomes whether or not they can generate consistent pressure on Burrow when these situations arise.
Burrow has been pressured on just 31% of his dropbacks this season. Only a handful of quarterbacks have faced pressure less often. Per Pro Football Focus, Cincinnati grades out as the third-best team in pass blocking league-wide.
The Steelers' pass rush ranks 29th in pressure rate this season, and in 3rd-and-long situations they send blitzers at just a 26% rate — 10% below the league average on 3rd down. At this point, you may be wondering how a defense with a lack of pass rush can rank as a top-10 unit according to EPA/play. Well, it’s quite simple — their schedule.
The Steelers have not faced a difficult slate of opposing signal callers. That list of opposing quarterbacks this season includes Deshaun Watson (twice), Cooper Rush, Jalon Daniels, Tyler Shough and Daniel Jones. Any defense given the benefit of playing offenses led by such mediocre quarterback play would have inflated numbers.
I must admit that I have buried the lead here, as the advantage Cincinnati will enjoy offensively does not negate its porous defense. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is one of the best in football. The Steelers average 0.067 expected points added per rush attempt — 2nd-best league-wide. The Bengals’ rush defense success rate ranks 28th this season.
Steelers lead back Jaylen Warren averaged 7.5 yards per carry when these teams met back in Week 3. His running mate Rico Dowdle will be fully healthy as well for this game, and he has regained his explosiveness. This is the type of rushing attack that can truly be a game-changer for a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers will avoid 3rd down, and when he does have to move the chains with his arm, he shouldn’t face long down-and-distance situations. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense was shredded by Cam Ward just two weeks ago through the air. Rodgers has faced the Bengals three times as the Steelers’ quarterback — his team has scored 30+ points in each of those games.
Steelers vs Bengals Prediction, Betting Analysis
These two teams combining for 57 total points in their previous meeting is not the singular reason to expect an abundance of points once again, but it is a data point we should use to project how these teams match up with one another.
Both teams rushed for more than 4.5 yards per carry, and both converted well over 50% of their 3rd and 4th downs. There were just three total punts in that game.
I once again am projecting each team to remain efficient as they create ample scoring opportunities. The Bengals can drag just about any team in the NFL over the oddsmakers’ posted total in their current form.
Four of Cincinnati's last five games have gone over the total, with the one under being an odd outing versus Jacksonville that still saw Burrow and company generate 437 yards of offense. Despite the scoreboard resulting in an under, each team averaged over six yards per play in that contest.
I am thrilled to be getting this total below the key number of 51 and would play this all the way up to 50.5.
Pick: Over 49.5 (FanDuel)
