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The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) take on the rival Tennessee Titans (1-7) today in NFL Week 10. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Jaguars are favored by -10.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. The Jaguars are -670 favorites on the moneyline and the Titans are a +490 underdogs.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs Titans predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 15.
Jaguars vs Titans Prediction
- Jaguars vs Titans pick: Over 46.5 (+100)
My Jaguars vs Titans best bet is on the over total points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Jaguars vs Titans Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 46.5 -100o / -120u | -670 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 46.5 -100o / -120u | +490 |
- Jaguars vs Titans Spread: Jaguars -10.5, Titans +10.5
- Jaguars vs Titans Total: 46.5
- Jaguars vs Titans Moneyline: Jaguars -670, Titans +490
Jaguars vs Titans NFL Week 10 Preview
The Titans nearly escaped Cincinnati with a victory two weeks ago prior to their bye week, and there is reason to believe their offensive output from that performance is sustainable moving forward.
Cam Ward possibly played the best game of his young career, which should assist in building his confidence in the second half of the season as he tries to prove he can be Tennessee's franchise quarterback. Ward not only passed for more than 300 yards, he used his legs when necessary — adding 41 yards on the ground — his highest single-game total through a season and a half in the league.
One reason I believe his performance can carry over against Jacksonville and beyond is the adjustments offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has made in his approach to orchestrating this offense. Ward is playing more freely and thinking less now that Daboll has injected more uptempo, no-huddle pace of play.
The 36% no-huddle rate in the Titans' last two games was the fastest neutral-script pace of play in the league over that span. Daboll increased the amount of uptempo plays in Week 8 in comparison to Week 7, and with the success he had on the road in Cincinnati, it is fair to expect a potential slight increase in this game.
For the season, Ward is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt when operating the offense at a normal pace — that number improves significantly to 7.1 yards per pass attempt when the team uses no-huddle.
Of course, the counterargument to Ward’s uptick in performance is that he put up big numbers against a bad Bengals defense. While I am not here to defend their level of play as a defensive unit, their metrics defending the pass are not too far off from what we have seen out of the Jaguars.
Both the Bengals and Jaguars allow exactly 7.3 yards per attempt — tied for 20th in the league. Jacksonville has surrendered eight touchdown passes and 89 first downs through the air, while Cincinnati has allowed nine touchdown passes and 93 passing first downs.
Jacksonville’s acquisition of safety Jessie Bates will help solidify its secondary, but it may not pay immediate dividends as it will take some time for him to get acclimated to a new defensive system.
Being bullish on the Titans offense moving forward is one thing, but I can't say the same about their defense. I am expecting an abundance of points in this game as the Jaguars boast the league’s best point differential in the first half of games this season. This will only increase the pace Tennessee will play at as they chase points in the second half.
The Jaguars offense has been both efficient and explosive this season. No team in the NFL has scored more touchdowns from outside of the red zone and no team has generated more chunk gains of 10 or more yards at a higher rate. The Titans' pass defense ranks in the bottom five league-wide in both completion percentage and yards per attempt.
More specifically, Titans head coach Robert Saleh has this defense playing zone coverage on 78% of defensive snaps. Jacksonville has shredded zone coverage this year.
The Jaguars' expected points added (EPA) is the best in the league when facing zone schemes this season. Trevor Lawrence has a 116.4 passer rating against zone coverage with eight touchdown passes to just two interceptions.
Jaguars vs Titans Prediction, Betting Analysis
We should avoid laying double-digit points on the road with the Jaguars in this spot. Home underdogs of 10 or more points are 23-13-1 against the spread (ATS) since the beginning of the 2021 season, covering at a 63.3% rate.
With that said, that trend alone isn’t enough for me to trust a Titans defense that will struggle to get off the field without allowing points — the Titans rank 25th on defense in third-down conversion rate.
Instead, with neither team particularly strong against the pass, in combination with the potential uptick in Ward’s production through the air, focusing on the total is the practical move to make. Additionally, getting this number just below the key number of 47 is important. I’d play this number at 46.5 or better.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-100)
