The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) meet in the Week 10 edition of Sunday Night Football on November 9. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast on NBC.
The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites on the spread over the Steelers (Chargers -2.5), with an over/under of 44.5 points. The Chargers are -150 moneyline favorites while the Steelers are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Steelers vs Chargers predictions.
My Steelers vs Chargers Prediction
- Steelers vs Chargers pick: Steelers +3 (to -125) or Steelers Moneyline (to +100)
My Steelers vs Chargers bets are the Steelers to cover the spread or to win outright. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Chargers Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
Steelers vs. Chargers Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: All data is via FTN unless otherwise noted.
The Steelers defense after the first eight weeks of the season ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.167) and 21st in pass success rate (49.2%), according to rbsdm.com.
They made some key changes ahead of Week 9, which led to their best performance of the season, holding a Colts offense that entered Week 9 ranked third in EPA per dropback (0.290) to a -0.268 mark — the worst of any offense in Week 9.
The Steelers accomplished this by moving Jalen Ramsey from corner, where he had been struggling, to safety, where he was an upgrade.
They blitzed at their lowest rate of the season; they also played more two-high coverages. The result was more bodies in coverage, tight windows and less breakdowns.
The Steelers were also more successful against play-action and motion. This type of scheme always made sense because the Steelers don't need to blitz to get pressure given how dominant their defensive line is, led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Hayward.
The switch in strategy will make this matchup more difficult for the Chargers and Justin Herbert.
Herbert is averaging 6.4 yards per dropback against single-high coverages, but 5.6 against two-high. He's averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (YPA) when blitzed, but 6.8 YPA when not blitzed, per PFF.
The Chargers will have to deal with Watt, Hayward, and company without the services of tackle Joe Alt, who was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
In Alt's five fully healthy games, the Chargers averaged 26.8 points per game, going 5-0 straight up (SU) and 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS). In the other four, the Chargers averaged 20.3 points per game and went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Steelers vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
According to our Action Labs data, the Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin are 65-35-3 (65%) ATS as an underdog, producing a 26% ROI.
Pittsburgh is 32-14-1 (70%) ATS under Tomlin as a 'dog when facing an opponent with a better record.
As an underdog at any point after September, the Steelers are 44-36 (55%) SU under Tomlin for a 38% ROI.
Pick: Steelers +3 (-115; bet to -125) or Steelers Moneyline (below +3)
Spread
Steelers +3. The Steelers have crushed as a 'dog under Tomlin and the Chargers have little to no home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium.
Moneyline
Steelers +136. The +3 is a key number, and the Steelers have been just as profitable on the moneyline as a 'dog under Tomlin.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total.
