The NFL season has officially begun, and I have a couple of quarterback props for the first NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 1, including picks for Texans vs. Rams and Steelers vs. Jets.
Nick Giffen's NFL Player Props — Week 1
- QB Justin Fields Under 46.5 Rush Yds (-111; DraftKings)
- QB Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115; bet365)
Steelers vs Jets Player Prop: Justin Fields Rush Yards
Last year with Pittsburgh, Justin Fields only averaged 38.5 rushing yards in his six starts, but the Jets do plan on leaning into his strengths more.
Even with that said, I still like the under thanks to the opponent and the situation.
The Steelers allowed the fewest scrambles last year, thanks to the highest rate of single-high safety use in the league, keeping an extra man in the box.
Scrambles tend to result in higher rushing yards per attempt than designed runs, and Fields has averaged 3.86 yards per carry more on scrambles than on designed runs in his career.
Pittsburgh also spent a bit this offseason on defense, and could be even better than in years past.
Fields could also see a kneel down or two if the Jets were to win, since they are less than 3-point underdogs, which is a shorter 'dog than the average Fields start, meaning a slightly higher chance of kneel downs than average for him.
And with a higher chance of leading than the average Fields' start, a more run-oriented script with fewer dropbacks may be in order — further limiting scrambles in favor of designed runs (or just more RB runs).
I'm projecting just north of 40 yards and would even play this at 45.5.
Texans vs Rams Player Prop: Matthew Stafford Interceptions
I'm going with Over 0.5 interceptions for Matthew Stafford today. Only eight interceptions on 25 TWP (Turnover-Worthy Plays) is silly lucky.
The league's average rate was just over 60%, while his was 32% (8/25).
The Houston defense was second with the most interceptions and third with the most passes defended last year, and now gets defensive upgrades with CJ Gardner-Johnson at safety (third most INT last year with the Eagles) and Sheldon Rankins, who is an upgrade on the interior over Tim Settle.
Four of Stafford's eight interceptions last year were against Cover 1, which the Texans played at the 12th-highest rate last year, plus he's dealing with a lower back disc issue.
The Rams quarterback hasn't been able to practice much with Davante Adams, so you never know if that could lead to a mix-up in the game.
I'm projecting 0.88 with a 58.5% chance of INT. Good to play at -135 or so.
