After an exciting Week 5, I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 6.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 6, including picks for Seahawks vs Jaguars and Chargers vs Dolphins.
NFL Player Props — Week 6
- TE Hunter Long Over 0.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (+103, DraftKings)
- RB Bhayshul Tuten Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards (-125, bet365)
- RB Kimani Vidal Longest Rush Over 9.5 yards (-115, DraftKings)
Seahawks vs Jaguars Player Prop: Hunter Long Receiving Yards
I'd have to think that Jacksonville starts with the ball here.
Head coach Liam Coen has decided to receive and half the time the Jaguars have won the coin toss, while Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald has always deferred during his two seasons as head coach.
Hunter Long was the receiving replacement for Brenton Stange after he went down with an injury against the Chiefs. Long projects to run routes on more than 60% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks.
Strange was targeted quite frequently, garnering eight of his 24 full-game targets (33.3%) and six of his 19 full-game receptions in the first quarter (31.6%). We can likely expect Long to have a target or two as well.
Seattle has struggled a bit against tight ends, allowing the third-most targets per game and the eighth-most yards per game to the position.
The Seahawks boast the No. 2 rush defense by defensive DVOA, which should force Jacksonville into a few more long-yardage situations, likely necessitating a higher first-quarter passing rate overall than the Jaguars have been using.
Long's receiving yardage prop is anywhere from 22.5 to 26.5, so just needing one yard when the Jaguars are more likely to start with the ball and Strange was getting plenty of early targets is a very low bar to clear.
I'd play this to -130, over 1.5 yards at -120, and over 2.5 yards at -110.
Pick: Hunter Long Over 0.5 1Q Receiving Yards (bet to -130)
Seahawks vs Jaguars Player Prop: Bhayshul Tuten Longest Rush
Bhayshul Tuten has one carry over 8.5 yards this season on 24 attempts from at least nine yards away from the end zone.
He now faces the NFL's second-stingiest run defense by DVOA and yards per carry in the Seahawks, who have allowed a run of over nine yards on non-scrambles just 12.1% of the time, lower than the 14.7% league average.
Even worse for Tuten, 19 of his 25 overall carries have come on zone-concept runs, of which the Seahawks allow the second-lowest success rate and lowest yards per carry.
Not only that, more than half of Tuten's carries have gone up the middle, which is the stingiest part of the Seahawks' run defense. They've allowed fewer than three yards per carry with just two of 26 runs up the middle going for more than nine yards. Both of those were given up to Christian McCaffrey.
At 5.5 projected carries, I'm showing strong value on Tuten staying under 8.5 yards for his longest rush. I'd play this down to -150.
Pick: Bhayshul Tuten Longest Rush Under 8.5 Yards (-125; bet to -150)
Chargers vs Dolphins Player Prop: Kimani Vidal Longest Rush
Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins are due to split backfield work for the Chargers, with Haskins taking more of the early-down and short-yardage situations, while Vidal will mix in to play more on passing situations.
That should set up nicely for Vidal to have a long run because the Dolphins allow big runs at a high rate (worst explosive run rate allowed in the NFL) and those rates increase in situations that favor Vidal.
Miami has allowed just three runs of 10+ yards on 34 attempts (8.8%) when the run expectancy was at least 60%, but 19 runs of 10+ yards on 92 carries (20.7%) if the run expectancy was less than 60%.
The Dolphins also allow 19.5% of carries to go for 10+ yards on outside runs compared to 14.9% up the middle. More than two-thirds of Vidal’s runs are to the outside.
In addition, Miami has a worse defensive success rate and yards per carry allowed against man/gap runs compared to zone runs. Under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Chargers like to use man/gap schemes, especially with Vidal (68.1%).
I think this number is relatively low due to the Chargers' depleted offensive line, but RT Trey Pipkins III hasn't been a great run blocker anyway, so there is little to no drop-off there. LT Joe Alt has also fared better as a zone blocker, but Vidal should be mainly used in man/gap concepts, so again, the drop-off may not be as large on Vidal runs as Haskins runs.
I'm projecting Vidal will have around 6.5–7.5 carries on average from at least 10 yards away from the end zone, which would give him a 50–55% chance of clearing this even without adjusting for the beneficial factors.
After those adjustments, I have this in the 60% range.
Pick: Kimani Vidal Longest Rush Over 9.5 yards (-115)
