Saints vs. Seahawks Betting Odds & Picks: Can Teddy Bridgewater Keep This Close?

Saints vs. Seahawks Betting Odds & Picks: Can Teddy Bridgewater Keep This Close? article feature image
Credit:

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson.

Saints at Seahawks Betting Odds

  • Odds: Seahawks -4
  • Total: 45
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Saints came into the season as a Super Bowl hopeful, but now New Orleans will have its hands full just to stay afloat in the NFC South after losing Drew Brees for the next six weeks.

Even though they are missing Brees, the Saints have seen the line move in their direction. After opening as an 4.5-point underdog, New Orleans has shortened to +4, despite 73% of the bets coming in on Seattle.

Let’s dig into our analysts’ breakdown of this matchup, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Saints-Seahawks Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Seahawks

The Seahawks win this one by default after the Saints will lose Brees (thumb) for an extended period of time. They’re also dealing with other offensive injuries as Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) hasn’t practiced after getting injury last week, and they placed WR Keith Kirkwood (hamstring) on injured reserve.

Seattle was looking shaky with four missed practices on Wednesday, but that number has been cut to two after Thursday’s report came in. CB Neiko Thorpe (hamstring) and OL Ethan Pocic (neck) have yet to get in a practice this week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -4.5
  • Projected Total: 45.5

The Saints have a very capable backup in Teddy Bridgewater, who should be able to manage games enough that they should be able to rely on their strong running game and defense to keep them in games. But without Brees, they go from Super Bowl contender to a league-average team.

This line opened a bit too high with the Seahawks as 6-point favorites, but the market has since corrected closer to my projected line. I think the public is clearly on the Seahawks while the sharps appear to be on the Saints.

The Seahawks are 2-0 with a point differential of only +3! (They beat the Bengals by one and Steelers by two.) Having that type of “luck” in close games is how teams can quickly be overrated by the public.

I still think this number is pretty good, but if the Seahawks start 3-0, they could be a good team to fade in Week 4 at Arizona. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Russell Wilson vs. Teddy Bridgewater

The 31-year-old Wilson has thrown more than 2,000 more passes in his career than the 27-year-old Bridgewater, and each pass Wilson uncorks has gained nearly a full yard per attempt more than Bridgewater’s (7.9 vs. 7.1), on average — and that jumps to well over a full yard if you instead go by Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.2 vs. 6.6), which adjusts raw yardage totals for touchdowns and interceptions.

Bridgewater throws 1.26 TDs for every pick; Wilson, 3.19. Bridgewater is 8-9 in his career on the road; Wilson is 45-12 at home. This “mismatch” will come into play because both of these teams have struggled in coverage — Seattle ranks 25th and New Orleans, 26th, in Pro Football Focus’ team defensive coverage grades — but the home team much better positioned to exploit it thanks to their veteran star QB. — Chris Raybon

Expert Pick

Raybon: Seahawks Moneyline (-215)

The Saints got some some sharp action at +4.5, and maybe they can keep it close, but again, Bridgewater is 8-9 in his career on the road while Wilson is 45-12 at home.

Wilson is also the much more efficient passer of the two quarterbacks, so I would be highly surprised if the Saints pull off the upset — which might explain why there is more money than bets on Seattle moneyline while the opposite is true about the spread (according to our live public betting data as of writing).