49ers vs Browns Odds, Pick: Fade Cleveland in NFL Week 6
Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy (left) and PJ Walker (right).
49ers vs Browns Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | +375 |
49ers vs. Browns odds have San Francisco as a big favorite on the road in NFL Week 6.
The undefeated Niners could feast on QB P.J. Walker, who will be the Browns' third starting quarterback in their last three games.
Let's preview the game and make a 49ers vs. Browns pick below.
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San Francisco's defense ranks third in yards per play at 4.4. More than 31% of possessions against the 49ers have resulted in three plays and a punt, which is the best rate in the league behind only the Browns defense. The Niners defense is solid against the run, allowing 3.68 yards per attempt, and spectacular against the pass at 5.5 yards allowed per attempt (second).
The ineptitude of the Browns offense, even with Deshaun Watson, is the reason I feel so confident in their team total struggling to reach double digits.
Cleveland has only scored on 29% of its possessions thus far (27th). The Browns' offensive line has struggled to execute man blocking schemes this season with a 43.5% success rate. While they have excelled with zone blocking schemes, gaining 4.85 yards per carry, the Niners defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards while defending zone concepts. This is a bad matchup for the Browns rushing attack.
If the Browns can't run the ball successfully, they will have to try and move the chains through the air. Only one team is worse throwing the football on a down-to-down basis than the Browns.
At an already abysmal 4.5 yards per passing play, PJ Walker has little chance of increasing the efficiency of this passing attack. To make matters worse, Walker will not have the services of guard Joel Bitonio, who is the 12th-best pass-blocking guard in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
For an offense accounting for the seventh-most sacks in football, seeing the eighth-best pass rush win rate defense on the other side of the ball does not inspire confidence.
Bet San Francisco vs. Cleveland at FanDuel
Walker signed with the Browns practice squad on Aug. 30. Without an offseason of grasping the nuances of Kevin Stefanski’s offense, Cleveland's gameplan will not be complex.
The Browns will try to keep the ball on the ground, win the field position battle, and try to lean on their defense. In doing so, this will shorten the game. The Browns offense has operated at the sixth-slowest pace through five weeks, running a play once every 28.62 seconds. When they fall behind, don’t expect much time for them to try and play catch up. The Niners, when leading, play at the league’s slowest pace, running a play every 32.09 seconds.
Without Watson at the helm in Week 4, Cleveland averaged 2.6 yards per play on offense and scored only three points. The Browns aired it out 36 times for 72 passing yards, and converted only 4-of-16 third-down attempts. In their two red-zone attempts, they couldn’t muster a single point.
This matchup against the 49ers is an even taller task for a backup quarterback making his first start with a new team. There's a good chance this inefficient offensive attack falls short of 10 points.
49ers vs. Browns
Betting Picks & Predictions
At the time of writing, Caesars lists the Browns team total at 13.5, slightly juiced to -125.
I am fully comfortable laying a little bit of juice here. If this line moves, some sportsbooks offer the ability to play an alternate team total. Playing under 12.5 at an underdog price tag (any plus-money price) is perfectly reasonable, but I like the idea of moving that alternate total to 13.5 and playing the under that way up to -135.
The Browns will not score two touchdowns on the 49ers.
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