Saturday NFL Player Props: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson Most Popular Plays for Patriots-Colts

Saturday NFL Player Props: Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson Most Popular Plays for Patriots-Colts article feature image
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Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor.

Patriots vs. Colts Odds

Patriots Odds +2.5
Colts Odds -2.5
Over/Under 44.5
Date Saturday, Dec. 18
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
TV NFL Network

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon.

The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts will face off in a game with massive playoff implications.

With a win, the Patriots will re-take the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With wins over the Bills, Jaguars and Dolphins, they would lock down their first top seed since Tom Brady was their signal caller.

The Colts are the No. 6 seed in the AFC as of Saturday. A win would vault them into the No. 5 spot and within ear shot of the AFC South title.

The public is on the Colts to cover and on Indy to win outright. About 56% of the money is on the Colts to win by at least 2.5 points and roughly 66% of the money is on their moneyline at -130.

The public is also hammering these three player props for this Saturday Night Football matchup.

Colts vs. Patriots Most Popular Player Props

  1. Jonathan Taylor to score the first touchdown in the game (+400)
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson to score a touchdown at any time (-120)
  3. Jonathan Taylor over 95.5 rushing yards (-115)

Odds and data are according to BetMGM

Generally, “player to score the first touchdown” props are incredibly variable and seldom have great value. That principle holds true here.

But, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop may be a different story.

The Patriots have the second-best defense in the NFL. But their run defense (6th) is slightly worse than their pass defense (3rd).

Meanwhile, the Colts absolutely depend on Taylor to buoy their offense: Indy is just 18th in pass offense but 1st in the NFL at run offense, according to DVOA.

All signs point toward a dominant game. While 95.5 yards is a steep number — Taylor’s only hit that mark seven out of 13 games this season — he will be fed the ball on Saturday night.

Plus, by using this season’s historical precedent to estimate implied odds, we find that this line should be somewhere closer to -117. You’re getting a minuscule value add at BetMGM’s price of -115, but with the implied odds so close to the market price, if you’re confident that Taylor will receive his customary 20 touches, a wager on his rush yards prop is probably worth a sprinkle.

For Saturday’s second-most popular prop, Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in just two out of nine games played this season, but Damien Harris will not play due to a hamstring injury.

That should make Stevenson the go-to guy in the Patriots backfield. The price is so low relative to his previous production because sportsbooks are assuming he’ll take on much of Harris’s work, and therefore his touchdown probability.

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