The Best Seahawks vs. 49ers Prop Bet for Monday Night Football
Sep 8, 2019; Tampa, FL, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end Ross Dwelley (82) prior to the game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
- Justin Bailey identifies the best prop bet for Monday Night Football featuring the Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Prop Bets
Now let’s take a look at one of the top props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.
49ers TE Ross Dwelley
THE PICK: Under 3.0 Receptions (-110)
With George Kittle (knee) listed as doubtful for this game, Dwelley is expected to step in at tight end for the 49ers.
While Kittle was responsible for 26% of their target share, it’s not realistic for Dwelley to absorb that sort of target share, obviously. Jimmy Garoppolo will likely latch onto his new favorite target, Emmanuel Sanders, who has seen 24% target share since joining the team.
Overall, Garoppolo is averaging 28.25 pass attempts per game, and a realistic target share for Dwelley is likely somewhere in the 11-13% range. If Jimmy has 30 pass attempts this game that’ll put him at around three to four targets tonight.
It should also help that the 49ers are the most run-heavy team in the league, running the ball on 57% of their plays, while passing on just 43%. Given they’re 6-point favorites as of writing, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another run-heavy outing if they can keep the Seattle offense contained.
We presently have him projected for 2.5 receptions in our props tool and with the line set at 3.0, there’s a decent shot at a push here. I’d bet this to -120.
This is currently the only prop I’m eying for tonight, but I may add more into the Action Network app later if any catch my eye, so be sure to follow me.