Seahawks vs. Browns Expert Picks: How We’re Betting the Spread & Over/Under

Seahawks vs. Browns Expert Picks: How We’re Betting the Spread & Over/Under article feature image

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson

Seahawks at Browns Betting Picks

  • Odds: Seahawks -1.5
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Cleveland Browns just got blown out by the San Francisco 49ers, 31-3, on Monday Night Football while the Seattle Seahawks are coming off a narrow 30-29 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.

How should we weigh both primetime results?

Our staff breaks down how they’re betting Seahawks-Browns, complete with spread and over/under picks.

Stuckey: Browns +1.5

As a result of the Browns’ blowout loss to the 49ers on Monday Night Football, the consensus has now flipped to them being terrible again. But generally speaking, NFL teams are never as good or as bad as they appear in any individual week.

We’ve seen this story with the Browns a few times already this season. After getting smoked in their opener against the Titans, they bounced back with a convincing win over the Jets. Then after losing at home to the Rams in Week 3 with a shorthanded squad, they responded the following week with a win in Baltimore.

To me, these early-season results speak to the fact that Cleveland is a young, and not-so-well coached squad that will go through these ups and downs.

The Browns are still a decent AFC team in my book, and should be favored at home against the fraudulent Seahawks. Sure, they’re 4-1, which looks impressive on the surface, but look at Seattle’s wins:

  • Week 1: 21-20 home win over a winless Cincinnati team in a game they were out-gained by just under 200 yards
  • Week 2: 28-26 road win over the Steelers, who lost Ben Roethlisberger in the first half
  • Week 3: Home loss to Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints
  • Week 4: 17-point road win at Arizona, but only out-gained Cards by 20 yards
  • Week 5: 30-29 home win over the Rams in which a missed field goal was the deciding factor

The one bad thing about this spot is Seattle will have extra rest/prep after a Thursday night game, while Cleveland is coming back from the west coast on a short week. But I can’t pass up the Browns as home dog here.

The Browns have been a mess at times as a result of their offensive line (among other issues), but I’m not as concerned about that group this season — their line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, but Seattle’s defensive line ranks 25th in that same category and 21st in adjusted line yards (a measure of run defense effectiveness, per Football Outsiders).

nfl-picks-straight-up-week 3-2019
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield should have time in the pocket (assuming he doesn’t bail) to find his receivers downfield against a suspect Seahawks secondary. Just take a look at each respective team’s net yards despite a tougher schedule so far:

Browns: +0.3 (6.2 for vs. 5.9 against) | 12-11 opponent record
Seahawks: +0.2 (6.3 for vs. 6.1 against) | 9-15-1 opponent record

Give me the Browns at anything plus money.

Sonny Banks: Browns +1.5 vs. Seahawks

We all saw Cleveland get dismantled in primetime, and I do feel that Seattle’s extra rest has already been factored into the line.

One area I’ve focused in on for this game is in the trenches. The Browns’ offensive line has been a problem this season, but they’ve also faced a difficult schedule vs. opposing defensive lines. Four out of five teams they’ve faced are ranked inside the top eight in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. This matchup against the Seahawks, who rank middle of the pack in both categories, is actually a step down in competition for the Browns.

I do expect a better showing from the Browns’ offensive line giving Mayfield more time and the opportunity to take advantage of the Seahawks through the air, where they rank as average but have only faced passing offenses with an average rank of 21st in the league.

I make this game Cleveland -1 and would bet the Browns at pick’em or better.

PJ Walsh: Under 47

This total opened at 47 and has since dropped to 46. While 54% of bets are taking the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), the under has actually landed 80% of the money, suggesting the larger wagers are on that side of the total.

Why? For starters, these teams play much slower offensively than most people think, with Seattle ranking 27th and Cleveland 28th in Football Outsiders’ situation-neutral pace metric.

In addition, 15-16 mph winds are expected in Cleveland throughout this game. And according to Bet Labs, unders are 467-366-10 (56.1%) since 2005 in games played in double-digit breezes.

At the time of writing, there are still plenty of 47s across the market, so be sure to shop for the best line.

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