Koerner’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Tiers: The Alvin Kamara Trade to Make

This story is usually part of our EDGE subscription but is free for all to read today!

Below you’ll find my tiers for Week 10 fantasy football. These are based on standard scoring and cover every position.

As a reminder, these tiers are not updated after publication. If you want my most up-to-date rankings for PPR, Standard and Half-Point PPR leagues, check out this post.

Jump to a position:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Kicker | Defense

Quarterbacks

Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (vs. ARI)

The Chiefs are massive 16.5-point favorites this week at home against the Cardinals. They should score at will vs. Arizona, but if the Cardinals offense is unable to keep it close, we may see Mahomes’ streak of 300-plus yard passing games end at eight.

Regardless, he’s pretty much a lock at multiple touchdowns keeping him well above the rest of the position.

Tier 2

Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA)
Cam Newton (@ PIT)

Cam Newton came just short of having a blow-up game in a dream matchup vs. Tampa Bay in Week 10. Despite putting up 42 points, Newton was frustratingly only able to be part of two of the touchdowns as the Panthers scored four rushing touchdowns.

On the positive side, he did extend his streak of two or more touchdown passes to a career-high seven games.

Tier 3
Jared Goff (vs. SEA)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. WAS)
Drew Brees (@ CIN)
Philip Rivers (@ OAK)
Matt Ryan (@ CLE)

Fitzpatrick is one of the most dangerous QB1 plays this week; he should be started with caution in head-to-head season-long leagues. In these formats we want to target high-floor players, and unfortunately for Fitzpatrick, his floor every week is getting benched in-game for Jameis Winston.

FitzMagic’s upside makes him an enticing play for people needing a BYE-week fill in for the likes of Kirk Cousins or Deshawn Watson this week. The other four QBs in this Tier have extremely high floors, and the only way they “bust” is if their running backs score the lion’s share of their offensive touchdowns in a given week.

Tier 4
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CAR)
Tom Brady (@ TEN)
Carson Wentz (vs. DAL)
Mitch Trubisky (vs. DET)

Carson Wentz’s stock was rising heading into the BYE and shot up even more when the Eagles added slot-specialist Golden Tate. He has a stacked group of pass catchers at a time the Eagles may be considering airing it out even more given how weak their backfield has been since Jay Ajayi went on injured reserve.

Wentz is starting to be a bit more mobile and trust his surgically repaired knee more, which should help boost his weekly ceiling in the second half of the season.

Tier 5
Andrew Luck (vs. JAX)
Alex Smith (@ TB)
Andy Dalton (vs. NO)
Russell Wilson (@ LAR)

Three of these four quarterbacks have QB1 potential this week but have various issues holding them back. Luck has one of the toughest matchups in all of football, Alex Smith may play his “game manager” role despite having a great matchup vs. the Bucks. Dalton will be without his stud receiver A.J. Green.

Russell Wilson actually has very little to pick on heading into this matchup; he makes a great upside play this week.

Tier 6
Blake Bortles (@ IND)
Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL)

Similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles also poses the threat of an in-game benching any given week, which makes his floor extremely low. But his QB1 ceiling makes him tough to ignore him completely.

With Leonard Fournette returning, it may allow the Jaguars to begin limiting how much Bortles throws this week, which would obviously cap his built-in upside. He’s a pass for me; I’d much rather roll the dice with Mayfield in a great matchup this week against the Falcons.

Tier 7
Marcus Mariota (vs. NE)
Dak Prescott (@ PHI)
Matthew Stafford (@ CHI)
Eli Manning (@ SF)
Derek Carr (vs. LAC)

All five quarterbacks make for decent two-QB-league plays, but they have all had a pretty disappointing 2018 season so far. While each of them is good enough to pop up in standard leagues from time to time, I don’t see any of them as multiple-week investments in standard 12-team leagues.

Stafford lost his slot-man Golden Tate, and you can’t help but wonder if it’s a big reason he was sacked 10 times in Week 9. Losing your safety valve when under duress is a big deal.

Tier 8
Nick Mullens (vs. NYG)

One of the biggest surprises of Week 9 was UDFA/Brett Favre fan boy Nick Mullens, who shredded the Raiders on TNF. We have to seriously consider that the Raiders mailing it in deserves the majority of the credit for Mullens’ breakout performance.

Do NOT plug him in single-QB leagues, but he is certainly worth a stash in deep two-QB/Superflex leagues, as he gets to drive a Kyle Shanahan offense with nothing to play for in the second half. The 49ers could let him air it out and catch fire, or he will be a flash in the pan and you drop him; seems like it’s worth the minimal risk.

Tier 9
Josh McCown (vs. BUF)
Brock Osweiler (@ GB)
Josh Rosen (@ KC)

Josh Rosen has some sneaky value this week, as the Cardinals could air it out in the second half in garbage time against a soft Chiefs defense. New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich seems to be more willing to let Rosen air it out. He is in no way a “safe” play, though. Only a desperation dart throw.

Whoever starts for the Bills
Josh Allen (@ NYJ)

The Bills could start any of their three active quarterbacks this week. I have no clue who it will be yet, but it doesn’t matter. Whoever it is will be ranked dead last in my projections.

Running Backs

Based on standard scoring; +/- indicates how many Tiers up/down each player would move in a PPR format.

Tier 1
Todd Gurley (vs. SEA)

We are not worthy! We are not worthy! Gurley is 3.5 standard points clear of Tier 2 and is in a league of his own.

Tier 2
Melvin Gordon (@ OAK)
James Conner (vs. CAR)
Saquon Barkley (@ SF)
Kareem Hunt (vs. ARI)

This stacked Tier just goes to show just how valuable Gurley is this year. All four of these guys are in smash spots and guaranteed high-volume plays every week.

Tier 3
Alvin Kamara (@ CIN) +1
Kamara is a must-start in all formats and league sizes. Having said that, his floor seems rather low in standard formats in weeks where he fails to score. His yardage totals in Weeks 7-8 were pretty scary, and that was a direct result of Mark Ingram’s return and Taysom Hill’s emergence as a gadget player in the Saints offense.

The six touchdowns Kamara has scored the past three weeks are a direct result of his talent level and the highly efficient Saints offense. Having said that, I think selling Kamara high in a standard format makes sense. I’d flip him for Melvin Gordon or Kareem Hunt, if possible.

Tier 4
Ezekiel Elliott (@ PHI)

The only team that seems to be able to stop Zeke is … the Cowboys. They really need to improve their play-calling. Zeke had a massive first half in Week 9 … and then was barely used in the second half. Makes no sense

Tier 5
Christian McCaffrey (@ PIT) +1
Joe Mixon (vs. NO)
James White (@ TEN) +1
David Johnson (@ KC)

It appears that Gio Bernard is set to return from his multi-week absence, which lowers Joe Mixon’s value a bit. I am thinking that without A.J. Green, the Bengals will opt to lean on their running game a bit more this week and also design more plays to involve Mixon in the passing game.

Tier 6
Adrian Peterson (@ TB)
Nick Chubb (vs. ATL)

With Chris Thompson on the shelf, Adrian Peterson has had the Redskins backfield all to himself. The wheels fell off a bit last week against the Falcons because the Redskins fell behind and went pass happy. Look for Peterson to get back on track this week vs. Tampa Bay.

I don’t think a potential Chris Thompson return will impact him too much, but be sure to check out my updated rankings later in the week when we have a better idea on CT’s status.

Tier 7
Tevin Coleman (@ CLE)
Marlon Mack (vs. JAX)

Tevin Coleman finally broke out for a massive game in what was a very tough matchup on paper vs. Washington. Ito Smith is not going away, so I would be cautious making Coleman anything other than a solid RB2 at the moment.

Marlon Mack was on fire before the Colts’ Week 9 BYE, compiling back-to-back games of at least 125 rush yards. The Colts may opt to lean on him heavily against the Jaguars this week.

Tier 8
Aaron Jones (vs. MIA)
Jordan Howard (vs. DET)
Leonard Fournette (@ IND)
Tarik Cohen (vs. DET) +1
Matt Breida (vs. NYG)
Mark Ingram (@ CIN)
Isaiah Crowell (vs. BUF)
Dion Lewis (vs. NE)
LeSean McCoy (@ NYJ)
Kerryon Johnson (@ CHI)

After last week’s two-touchdown game in a 41-9 rout of the Bills, Jordan Howard gets another positive game-script game as the Bears are 6.5-point favorites vs. the Lions. In his 40 career games, Howard has now averaged 9.4 standard points in Bears losses and 16.9 points in Bears wins.

Matt Breida has had a roller coaster season in 2018. After becoming the de-facto lead back for the 49ers once Jerrick McKinnon suffered a season-long injury, Breida has battled a nagging injury and losing snaps to Raheem Mostert.

Now that Mostert is on the IR with an arm injury and his ankle nearing full health, I see Breida as a great buy-low candidate who could have a big second half of the season.

Leonard Fournette’s projection/rank is very tentative mid-week, and I will be tweaking it as we have a better sense as to what sort of workload we can expect from him. Be sure to check my updated rankings closer to kickoff before making any sit/start decisions.

Tier 9
Kenyan Drake (@ GB)
Doug Martin (vs. LAC)

This Tier starts to divide running backs who get at or less than half of the team’s snaps in the backfield. Drake has been frustrating to own. He is clearly the more talented back on the Dolphins, but they seem pretty content letting Frank Gore dominate their rush attempts.

Tier 10
Mike Davis (@ LAR)
Austin Ekeler (@ OAK)
Sony Michel (@ TEN)
Peyton Barber (vs. WAS)
Ito Smith (@ CLE)
Wendell Smallwood (vs. DAL)
Frank Gore (@ GB)
Duke Johnson (vs. ATL) +1
Elijah McGuire (vs. BUF)
Chris Carson (@ LAR)

This Tier is a mixture of banged up RB2s and the tail-ends of running back by committees. There’s a lot that needs to sort itself out here, so I would recommend using my updated rankings before making any sit/start decisions with this Tier when the time comes.

Tier 11
Jalen Richard (vs. LAC) +1
Derrick Henry (vs. NE)

Richard is worth including due to his PPR upside in what should be a perfect game script for him. The Raiders should be trailing big in this matchup up (they’re 10-point underdogs), and we could see Richard peppered with second-half dump-offs, giving him FLEX upside in all PPR formats.

One of my big misses this year was assuming Derrick Henry would be the lead back in the Titans offense with Dion Lewis’ presence being more of an annoyance that hurt his value. Turns out it’s actually flipped as Lewis is the back to own and Henry is nothing more than a weekly TD-or-bust fantasy play.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1
Michael Thomas (@ CIN)
Antonio Brown (vs. CAR)

No Adam Thielen or DeAndre Hopkins this week (they are on a BYE) makes the top end of wide receiver a little thin this week. It should not be a surprise to see Thomas in Tier 1, as the Saints don’t have as many receiving weapons as they typically do.

They were forced to bring in Dez Bryant to bolster their receiver depth. I don’t think this will impact Thomas this week, but it could ding his targets in a few weeks. It shouldn’t impact his elite efficiency.

Tier 2
Julio Jones (@ CLE)
Davante Adams (vs. MIA)
Tyreek Hill (vs. ARI)
Odell Beckham (@ SF)

We are also without A.J. Green this week due to injury which makes this Tier that much more valuable.

We finally got a Julio touchdown in Week 9! It was a long time coming, but it was good to see a receiver who racks up so many catches/yards hit pay dirt for the first time this season.

Look for the Falcons to move him around to avoid Browns stud rookie CB Denzel Ward this week.

Tier 3
Keenan Allen (@ OAK)
Mike Evans (vs. WAS)

My only fear with Keenan Allen this week is the Chargers likely won’t need to throw much to put the Raiders away. You have to play him so it really doesn’t matter; just be sure that you are rooting for Allen to have a big first half, as they may pound it with Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler in the second half to put the game away.

Tier 4
Robert Woods (vs. SEA)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. CAR)
Brandin Cooks (vs. SEA)

All three Rams receivers are elite plays as always again this week. Ranking them in any sort of order is purely cosmetic. All three should be started with confidence.

Tier 5
Tyler Boyd (vs. NO)
Cooper Kupp (vs. SEA)
Marvin Jones (@ CHI)

Tyler Boyd is going to have to step up big time with A.J. Green on the shelf. He has a great matchup to do so this week against burnable slot corner P.J. Williams. Boyd’s stock is way up for the next few weeks while Green is out.

Tier 6
Jarvis Landry (vs. ATL)
Josh Gordon (@ TEN)
Sammy Watkins (vs. ARI)
Kenny Golladay (@ CHI)
Julian Edelman (@ TEN)

Jarvis Landry could be in an eruption spot this week; the Falcons’ decimated defense has been exposed over the middle of the field. The past two weeks they have given up the following box scores to slot receivers: Maurice Harris (10/124/0) and Sterling Shepard (5/167/0).

Kenny Golladay has put up three straight duds. Smart money should be on him bouncing back in a big way.

The NFL is a small-sample-size league, and fans/fantasy players tend to overreact to 1-2 week sample sizes/trends. Golladay is an elite talent who is still young, and while he may not be as consistent as we like, he needs to be treated as a solid WR2 until further notice.

Tier 7
Alshon Jeffery (vs. DAL)
T.Y. Hilton (vs. JAX)

Golden Tate makes his debut for the Eagles this week and I don’t think it will have as big of an impact on Alshon Jeffery as it will Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz. Jeffery doesn’t need to be peppered with targets to maintain value and should still compile a decent number of touchdowns.

Hilton gets the Jalen Ramsey treatment this week, but I’m afraid we have to start him this week and simply lower our expectations.

Tier 8
Calvin Ridley (@ CLE)
DeSean Jackson (vs. WAS)
Corey Davis (vs. NE)
Doug Baldwin (@ LAR)
Devin Funchess (@ PIT)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. MIA)
Tyler Lockett (@ LAR)

MVS is trending up, as he is quickly becoming one of Aaron Rogers favorite targets. With Geronimo Allison now on IR, it pretty much solidifies MVS as a WR3 going forward, with borderline WR2 upside.

The time to move on him, if you can, is now.

DeSean Jackson is the definition of high-risk, high-reward at receiver. If you have him, you simply have to put him in your lineup and roll with the punches.

Tier 9
Sterling Shepard (@ SF)
Larry Fitzgerald (@ KC)
Christian Kirk (@ KC)
Tyrell Williams (@ OAK)
Golden Tate (vs. DAL)
Amari Cooper (@ PHI)
Randall Cobb (vs. MIA)
Donte Moncrief (@ IND)
Taylor Gabriel (vs. DET)
Mike Williams (@ OAK)
Marquise Goodwin (vs. NYG)
Mohamed Sanu (@ CLE)
Dede Westbrook (@ IND)
D.J. Moore (@ PIT)
Chris Godwin (vs. WAS)
Tre'Quan Smith (@ CIN)
Josh Doctson (@ TB)

There is a ton of potential in this massive WR3 Tier and plenty to like in each WR. But they all have fairly low floors we need to be aware of (Golden Tate, in particular, comes to mind here).

It’s unclear how much of the playbook Tate has learned, or how he will fit into this offense in his debut. My tentative projection/ranking has him as the No. 33 WR in standard, but he’s a perfect example why you need to check my updated rankings come Sunday before making any sit/start decisions.

Amari Cooper hit the ground running in his Dallas debut with a 5/58/1 line on MNF. I think being on the Cowboys helps raise his floor a bit, as they seem set to feature him the rest of the season.

I love Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk as sneaky high-end WR3 plays this week. There is no reason the Cardinals should hold Josh Rosen back this week as 16.5-point underdogs. New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is better equipped to revive this passing attack.

Tight Ends

Tier 1
Travis Kelce (vs. ARI)

Kelce’s value at the ultra-thin tight end position has been magnified by two things: 1) his elite numbers and 2) the irrelevance of Rob Gronkowski. The drop-off from the top-two tight ends each week is massive, giving Kelce/Ertz owners a huge edge each week.

Tier 2
Zach Ertz (vs. DAL)

To date, Ertz has been just as valuable as Kelce due to his remarkable consistency. He has now put up at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game this year. The one looming question: How much will Golden Tate hurt Ertz’s value?

I think it’s fair to say that it will hurt him just a tad since he and Tate will be competing for targets over the middle of the field. But it’s not enough to drop him down into the Tier below.

Tier 3
Rob Gronkowski (@ TEN)
George Kittle (vs. NYG)
Jimmy Graham (vs. MIA)
Jared Cook (vs. LAC)
Greg Olsen (@ PIT)
O.J. Howard (vs. WAS)

Gronk can’t be trusted as a part of the elite Tier until he can prove he is near full health. If he is active, you have to start him due to his touchdown potential alone, but this has not been an ideal situation for owners who spent a lot of draft capital on him.

The rest of the Tier is nothing but high-risk/high-reward tight ends who typically need a touchdown to be relevant. George Kittle appears to be the only one with a high enough floor to potentially warrant moving into his own Tier above if he continues to trend up.

Even with UDFA Nick Mullens at quarterback, Kittle proved that he is capable of putting up big numbers no matter who the 49ers have under center. He missed half of last week with an injury and still put up a 4/108/1 line.

Tier 4
Trey Burton (vs. DET)
David Njoku (vs. ATL)
Jordan Reed (@ TB)
Jack Doyle (vs. JAX)

Trey Burton really does deserve to be in the Tier above, but he needs to become a bit more consistent to be a rock-solid TE1. He has three touchdowns in the past four games … but he’s also failed to put up 30 or more yards in three of his past four, as well. This puts him in danger of being more of a TD-dependent tight end than we would like.

Tier 5
Austin Hooper (@ CLE)
Vance McDonald (vs. CAR)
C.J. Uzomah (vs. NO)
Eric Ebron (vs. JAX)
Evan Engram (@ SF)
Ben Watson (@ CIN)

Eric Ebron takes a massive hit with Jack Doyle back in the mix. This was apparent when he saw just three targets in Doyle’s return. During Doyle’s five-week absence, Ebron averaged 10 targets per game.

That said, Ebron still has enough touchdown upside each week to be relevant in fantasy.

It’s worth noting that the Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert both scored a touchdown in Week 8 against the Jaguars. The Colts may follow suit and attack the Jaguars with their two tight ends this week.

Tier 6
Ricky Seals-Jones (@ KC)
Chris Herndon (vs. BUF)
Nick Vannett (@ LAR)
Vernon Davis (@ TB)

Chris Herndon has quietly been trending up the past few weeks. The Jets coaching staff raved about Herndon during the preseason, but he fell into a four-way TE committee, as he was less than 100% to start the season.

The past four games, Herndon has emerged as the Jets’ feature tight end and has put up 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight games. You can do worse if you are desperate here.

Kickers

Tier 1
Harrison Butker (vs. ARI)

Tier 2
Greg Zuerlein (vs. SEA)

Tier 3
Wil Lutz (@ CIN)
Mike Badgley (@ OAK)
Stephen Gostkowski (@ TEN)
Mason Crosby (vs. MIA)
Chris Boswell (vs. CAR)
Chandler Catanzaro (vs. WAS)
Adam Vinatieri (vs. JAX)
Giorgio Tavecchio (@ CLE)

Tier 4
Jake Elliott (vs. DAL)
Dustin Hopkins (@ TB)
Robbie Gould (vs. NYG)
Cody Parkey (vs. DET)
Randy Bullock (vs. NO)
Graham Gano (@ PIT)

Tier 5
Josh Lambo (@ IND)
Jason Myers (vs. BUF)
Greg Joseph (vs. ATL)

Tier 6
Ryan Succop (vs. NE)
Sebastian Janikowski (@ LAR)
Matt Prater (@ CHI)
Aldrick Rosas (@ SF)
Daniel Carlson (vs. LAC)

Tier 7
Brett Maher (@ PHI)
Jason Sanders (@ GB)
Phil Dawson (@ KC)
Steven Hauschka (@ NYJ)

Defenses

Tier 1
New York Jets (vs. BUF)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. ARI)

Tier 2
Green Bay Packers (vs. MIA)
Chicago Bears (vs. DET)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. DAL)
New England Patriots (@ TEN)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ OAK)

Tier 3
San Francisco 49ers (vs. NYG)
Atlanta Falcons (@ CLE)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)
Buffalo Bills (@ NYJ)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. JAX)
Washington Redskins (@ TB)
New York Giants (@ SF)

Tier 4
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ IND)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CAR)
Dallas Cowboys (@ PHI)
New Orleans Saints (@ CIN)
Detroit Lions (@ CHI)

Tier 5
Carolina Panthers (@ PIT)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. WAS)
Cleveland Browns (vs. ATL)
Tennessee Titans (vs. NE)
Miami Dolphins (@ GB)

Tier 6
Seattle Seahawks (@ LAR)
Arizona Cardinals (@ KC)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. NO)
Oakland Raiders (vs. LAC)