Seahawks vs Bengals Pick, Odds: Bet This NFL Week 6 Over/Under
Getty Images. Pictured: Geno Smith (left) and Joe Burrow (right).
Seahawks vs Bengals Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | -155 |
We start the main slate of Week 6 games with a Seahawks vs. Bengals pick.
After hopefully turning the corner against the Cardinals in Week 5, Cincinnati hosts Seattle, which is coming off a bye week came at a necessary time to get healthy. The Seahawks defense had an elite display on NFL Monday Night Football when we last saw them, but that had more to do with the inept Giants offensive line than it did an excellent Seattle pass rush.
How does that translate to a betting pick? Read on as we break down the Seahawks vs. Bengals odds and make our NFL Week 6 prediction.
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Despite all the talk about Seattle's injuries along its offensive line, the Seahawks are ninth in pass block win rate. They'll still be starting multiple backups on Sunday, but the key returner is left tackle Charles Cross, who's missed the last three games with a toe injury. Cross will be matched up with Bengals edge Trey Hendrickson early and often, and his return is a major key for the unit's success overall.
Even while dealing with offensive line injuries in the opening month, Seattle's offense is second in early down success rate. That has proven to be more predictive than high variance late downs, where the Seahawks have struggled. Seattle has been the league's worst on third downs.
The Seahawks' elite offensive showing against the improved Lions defense looks better with each passing week. I’m trusting the early down numbers to hold up and the late-down numbers to regress closer to league average.
An underrated element of the Seahawks' offensive success is their ability to run the ball. The two-headed combination of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet has led them to the top five in both success rate and EPA per rush.
Another thing I like for this over: Both the Seahawks and Bengals rank in the bottom six in second-and-long rush rate. They put the ball in the quarterback's hands and let them cook. That means fewer runs to set up third and short and more chances for explosive pass plays.
Bet Seattle vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel
If you compare NFL Next Gen Stats pass charts for Burrow in Week 4 against Tennessee and Week 5 against Arizona, you can see a noticeable difference in his ability to push the ball down the field.
Burrow was 1-for-3 on passes of 10+ yards downfield against the Titans. Last week, Burrow was 8-for-12 with three touchdowns and an interception. The willingness to even attempt those balls is a sign his health is improving.
Here's Week 5 against Arizona:
Here's Week 4 against Tennessee:
The Seahawks have been solid against the run — they made it a point to improve that part of the defense over the offseason — but that should force the Bengals into more pass-heavy situations. The Seahawks will be without two of their top cornerbacks in Artie Burns and Coby Bryant.
With Tee Higgins progressing toward a return from his rib injury, the balance tilts toward Cincinnati having the talent advantage in WR vs. CB matchups on the outside.
Seahawks vs. Bengals
Betting Picks & Predictions
One of the main reasons the total dropped below the key number of 45 was the wind in the forecast. Both of these pass offenses are precision based, and winds forecasted between 10-15 mph could have an impact on that.
However, there's no rain in the forecast and the temperatures are pretty warm in the upper 50s, so I think the market has overreacted to the wind. Unless the forecasted winds were closer to 2omph, I don't think it will impact offense too much.
As a result, I'm betting over 45.5 or better in this matchup. The Bengals offense is trending back up; the Seahawks defense has plenty of holes for a good passer like Burrow to exploit and their offense has positive third-down regression coming.
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