Seahawks-Rams Betting Preview: Back Seattle as a Trendy Underdog?

Seahawks-Rams Betting Preview: Back Seattle as a Trendy Underdog? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Aaron Donald

Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Rams -9.5
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Getting nearly 50% of bets at the time of writing (see live data here), the Seahawks are one of the trendiest underdogs of the week.

Meanwhile, the over/under has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5 since opening behind 40% of bets and 53% of dollars on the under.Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Russell Wilson has been an underdog of more than seven points only three times before, going 1-2 straight-up and 3-0 against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. John Ewing

Did you know? Wilson has started 104 regular-season games since being drafted in 2012, compiling an impressive 74-30 record. Of those 30 losses, only two came by more than 10 points — although one was to the Rams last season.

Over that span, however, the Rams and Seahawks have played a lot of very close games. In fact, nine of their 13 matchups since 2012 have been decided by one possession, including their meeting in Week 5. Stuckey

Jared Goff is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (-2 units) against the Seahawks. His five interceptions and five fumbles against them are his most against any team, and they’re the only opponent he’s failed to cover against three times. Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Rams are coming off their first loss of the regular season. According to our data at Bet Labs, teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that are coming off a loss in November or later have gone 59-49 ATS (54.6%) since 2003.

The Rams face a fierce Seahawks defense that has given Goff fits in the past. When teams face a defense (like Seattle’s) that’s allowing fewer than 21 points per game in this spot, they’re 33-22 ATS (60%), profiting bettors 9.4 units. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Rams’ rush offense vs. Seahawks’ rush defense

The Seahawks held Todd Gurley to only 77 yards on 22 rushes (3.5 yards per carry) in Week 5, but the Rams’ offensive line has taken its performance to a higher level in recent weeks.

Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley

Overall, the Rams (5.57) join the Colts (5.1) as the only offensive lines averaging more than five adjusted line yards per rush.

The Seahawks’ 15th-ranked defensive line has yielded a mediocre 4.18 adjusted line yards per rush, giving Gurley the week’s largest advantage in combined adjusted line yards per carry. Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Rams

The Rams don’t even have a player listed on their injury report.

The Seahawks don’t appear to be dealing with serious injuries to Doug Baldwin (groin), linebacker K.J. Wright (knee) or Chris Carson (hip), but all three should be monitored until kickoff. The statuses of right guard D.J. Fluker (leg) and safety Bradley McDougald (knee) will also be worth a look on Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Rams have asked Marcus Peters to shadow in consecutive weeks. Pro Football Focus’ 106th-ranked cornerback has accordingly allowed Davante Adams (5-133-0) and Michael Thomas (12-211-1) to go off.

Peters is one of only three corners who has allowed at least six touchdowns this season, one of which came at the hands of Tyler Lockett in Week 5.

The Seahawks’ pass-averse offense has featured similar target distribution between Baldwin (17%), Lockett (15%) and David Moore (17%) since Baldwin returned in Week 4. Yet Moore ($3,900) remains significantly cheaper with lower-projected ownership than Baldwin ($5,200) and Lockett ($4,800). Hartitz

Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Lockett, Marcus Peters

Bet to watch: Seahawks +9.5

One could argue that this is a semi-flat spot for the Rams after an emotional loss in New Orleans, but this is a division matchup between two teams that don’t like each other.

The Rams should be up for this game (although they don’t have a great home-field advantage). This is simply too many points for a scrappy Seahawks team that’s not only playing to exact revenge for an earlier season loss to the Rams (in a game that Seattle should have won), but that is playing for its season.

After an 0-2 start, Seattle has found its identity as a run-first team, which really fits its offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in Football Outsiders’ Power Success and Stuffed Rates. The Seahawks are getting great push up front and the Rams can be run on: They allow 4.7 yards per rush (24th in the NFL).

That commitment to the run sets Wilson up in the passing game with an underrated group of big-play receivers. I expect a bounce-back performance from Russ after one of the worst games of his career last week against the Chargers. (In case you’re curious, Wilson went 13-of-21 for 198 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 5 matchup against the Rams.)

The Rams’ secondary remains vulnerable without Aqib Talib and a less-than-100% Peters.

Seattle’s new pieces on the defensive side have developed faster than anybody expected and the unit is playing at a more-than-respectable level. That said, the Rams will still get theirs. I just think the Seahawks can keep up and hang around. Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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