3 Best Steelers-Patriots Prop Bets: Will Josh Gordon Dominate on SNF?

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.  The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

Now let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of at least 8 for the Sunday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. Last season, props with a grade of 8 or higher went 992-664-47 (59.9% win rate).

Steelers WR James Washington

THE PICK: Under 3.5 Receptions (-134)
Bet Quality: 10/10

Steelers wide receiver James Washington has been productive in each of the past two preseasons but has yet to find his regular-season rhythm with quarterback Ben Rothlisberger.

In his 12 games as a rookie, Washington never caught more than three receptions in a game. He totaled exactly three receptions twice, in Weeks 15 and 17.

This prop directly plays off Washington's explosive preseason, which saw him total 10 receptions, 208 yards, and two touchdowns. However, all those receptions came from quarterbacks other than Roethlisberger. In 2018, Washington totaled seven receptions, 158 yards, and two touchdowns in the preseason, but that failed to carry over to the regular season.

Koerner has Washington projected for 2.6 receptions, almost a full catch less than the line. Look for Roethlisberger to target JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, Ryan Switzer and tight end Vance McDonald before looking in Washington's direction. The second-year receiver certainly has big-play ability, but he will not receive enough volume to reach four receptions.

The -125 juice is just right, but I would bet this prop up to -150 as a 10-graded prop with a 26% difference in expectation.

Patriots RB James White

THE PICK: Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bet Quality: 9/10

The last two regular-season battles between the Steelers and Patriots have been very competitive. Pittsburgh won last year's game 17-10 at home and the Patriots won 27-24 in their 2017 battle. The Steelers also understand that a key to beating the Patriots is to limit running back James White.

In the last three regular-season games against Pittsburgh, White has averaged five targets, three receptions, and just 21.6 receiving yards. His receiving totals in those three games have been 32 yards, eight yards, and 25 yards. It is also important to note the health of fellow running back Rex Burkhead. Per RotoViz, in the eight games last year that Burkhead played, White only averaged 38.6 receiving yards. When Burkhead didn't play, that total jumped to  55.3 receiving yards.

In 2018, the Steelers allowed the third-fewest receptions (67) and fifth-fewest receiving yards (515) to opposing running backs.  If the Patriots are going to win this game, they will need to find other offensive options besides the volatile White.

This prop rates 9-out-of-10 in our FantasyLabs props tool with our model projecting 17% fewer yards than the implied total of 43.8.

Patriots WR Josh Gordon

THE PICK: Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bet Quality: 8/10

Josh Gordon was only reinstated two weeks ago, limiting his preseason practice time and rapport with quarterback Tom Brady. In last season's Week 15 game at Pittsburgh, Gordon managed just one reception for 19 yards.

His biggest hurdle may be drawing targets away from his fellow wide receiver, Julian Edelman.  Historically, Edelman has been able to feast off a Pittsburgh defense that has a propensity to cover slot receivers with linebackers. Over his last three games against the Steelers, Edelman has averaged 11 targets, nine receptions, and 82.3 yards. Gordon will also have to contend with Phillip Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers and Demaryius Thomas for targets.

Look for Gordon to be on the field for most of the game, but disappoint in terms of actual production. This prop rates 8-out-of-10 in our FantasyLabs props tool with our model projecting 14% fewer yards than the implied total of 66.2.