Super Bowl DFS Breakdown, Lineups, Picks for Chiefs vs Eagles
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts.
Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles has arrived. So, without any further delay, here are my DFS cash lineups at both DraftKings and FanDuel, plus my top Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) plays.
Cash
The goal in cash games is to maximize your floor, which — in a one-game format — means attempting to gain exposure to as much of each team's passing and rushing production as possible. The ideal way to do this is by rostering each team's quarterback and running backs, but salaries don't always allow for it.
I’m projecting Jalen Hurts as the highest-scoring player on the slate, multiple fantasy points ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Hurts has at least one rushing touchdown in 11 of his 17 games this season (64.7%) and posted at least three total touchdowns in eight of 17 games (47.1%).
Though rostering Kelce at a cheaper price is tempting, Mahomes has accounted for 49 of the Chiefs' 66 touchdowns this season (74.2%). Barring injury, Mahomes will provide exposure to all of Kelce's production without the risk of missing out on that of any other Chiefs pass catcher.
Isiah Pacheco has been grossly out-playing Jerick McKinnon on the ground over the past five games, posting a 57/273/5.2/2 line to McKinnon’s 24/43/1.8/0. Pacheco has also been more efficient than McKinnon as a receiver, with 10.3 yards per reception and 9.8 yards per target compared to McKinnon's marks of 9.3 and 7.4, respectively.
The Eagles are a run-funnel defense, ranking first in DVOA against the pass, but 19th versus the run, so I expect Pacheco to be heavily involved. Though the Eagles have been better since acquiring Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph prior to Week 11, they have allowed a 29/178/6.1/2 rushing line to running backs this postseason.
A running back has scored a touchdown in 11-of-18 games (61%) against Philadelphia, including four of the past six. Pacheco has handled 73% of the team’s running back carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line since Week 11. I’m projecting Pacheco's odds of scoring at least one touchdown at 35%, fourth among skill players and ahead of McKinnon's 31%.
Miles Sanders faces a Chiefs team that has allowed a running back touchdown in each of its first two playoff games. Kansas City has allowed running back touchdowns in nine games (78%) versus playoff teams compared to five in 10 games against non-playoff teams. I’m projecting 40% touchdown odds, trailing only Kelce among skill players. Unfortunately, you can't fit Sanders and Pacheco on FanDuel if you roster the two quarterbacks, who are the priority.
Kenneth Gainwell is a risky fade at this point. Though he likely won’t see more than a handful of carries with the Eagles unlikely to post a third straight blowout win, it’s possible he has earned a larger role with his recent play — 29 touches for 197 yards and a touchdown over the past two games.
And while McKinnon has only one rushing score this season, Gainwell has five, leaving you more exposed to missing out on a touchdown than if you were to fade McKinnon, who is more likely to score through the air and thus be captured by rostering Mahomes.
Noah Gray edges Quez Watkins as my top punt play. Gray has run at least 10 routes in every game and has caught at least one pass in 15 straight. He also has had success against Cover 4 (1.62 yards per route run, per Sports Info Solution) and Cover 3 (1.90 YPRR), which are two of the Eagles’ most common coverages. Gray is averaging averaging 1.8 receptions for 21.0 yards per game since the Week 8 bye.
DraftKings Cash Lineup
- CAPT QB Jalen Hurts $16,800
- FLEX QB Patrick Mahomes $11,000
- FLEX RB Miles Sanders $7,800
- FLEX RB Isiah Pacheco $7,200
- FLEX RB Kenneth Gainwell $5,000
- FLEX TE Noah Gray $1,200
FanDuel Cash Lineup
- MVP QB Jalen Hurts $17,000
- FLEX QB Patrick Mahomes $17,500
- FLEX RB Isiah Pacheco $10,500
- FLEX RB Kenneth Gainwell $8,500
- FLEX TE Noah Gray $5,500
Top GPP Captain
TE Travis Kelce — The Eagles are sixth in DVOA against TEs, but even better against WR1s (second) and WR2s (fourth), so Kelce is still likely to get his. He has scored a touchdown in each of past five postseason games and in eight of his past nine. He has posted 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 13-of-19 (68%) games this season, and in 14-of-17 (82%) career postseason games.
Top GPP Dart Throws
TE Jody Fortson — 29% of Fortson's career catches have gone for touchdowns and 38% of his targets this season have come inside the 10. He is averaging 8.0 routes per game, which is good for a TE3.
WR Quez Watkins — His route participation rate rebounded from 28% to 52% last week and he's seen 24% of his targets come at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. With the Eagles having their lowest spread of the season in a Hurts start, Watkins could potentially benefit from a negative game script. He is averaging 8.3 YPR when leading/tied, but 17.2 YPR when trailing.
Best of the Rest
WR A.J. Brown — The Chiefs are 31st in DVOA vs. WR1s and tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to WRs during the regular season (20). Brown finished sixth in 20+ targets (29) during the regular season and Kansas City allowed 6/3/83/1 on 20+ passes last week.
WR DeVonta Smith — He has as many 100-yard games as Brown (5) and will get his chances on Jaylen Watson.
WR Kadarius Toney — Outside shot at being the Chiefs' leading wide receiver if he can make it through the game healthy — a big if.
WR Justin Watson — The Eagles gave up the third-fewest explosive plays, but he averages 20.4 yards per reception and is averaging 24.2 routes per game since the bye.
TE Dallas Goedert — The Chiefs are 30th in DVOA on passes to the short middle and have allowed 7.6 schedule-adjusted targets per game to TEs, tied for fifth most.
DST Philadelphia Eagles — Averaging 4.1 sacks per game and the Chiefs will go pass-heavy if they get down early.
Limited Exposure
RB Jerick McKinnon – -Struggling as a runner and pass blocker of late. Likely to continue losing snaps to Isiah Pacheco.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Could see more action than Ronald Jones did as the No. 3 back, but will likely top out at 4-5 touches unless Pacheco or McKinnon get hurt.
RB Boston Scott — Due for touchdown regression after scoring one in each of his past three games despite nine, six and six carries. Hasn't caught a pass since Week 14.
FB Michael Burton — Seven scoreless touches in 19 games.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster — He's worthwhile as a change-up option in lineups that also feature Mahomes and/or fade Kelce, but he appears more likely to hit his floor than his ceiling. Not only does he face a tough matchup regardless of where he lines up, but he has failed to top 38 receiving yards in eight of the past 10 games and has only 119 yards on 139 routes over his past five outings.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — The other two times he posted at least 90 receiving yards this season were each followed by games of 12 or fewer yards.
WR Skyy Moore — Averaging just 6.6 yards per target with no touchdowns this season and will likely operate as the WR5 with Smith-Schuster, Toney and Watson healthy.
WR Zach Pascal — Has run 10-plus routes in each of the past five games, but caught only two passes over that span.
WR Britain Covey – Only four routes run on the season so you're banking on the 0.5% chance he returns a punt for a touchdown.
TE Jack Stoll — No touchdowns in 36 career games and hasn't caught more than one pass in any game Dallas Goedert has played this season.
TE Grant Calcaterra — Has run one route in two playoff games.
K Jake Elliott — Multiple field goals in just five of his 19 games (26.3%).
K Harrison Butker — The Chiefs may have to go for it more on fourth down and attempt two-point conversions as underdogs against the aggressive Nick Sirianni.
DST Kansas City Chiefs — The Eagles are a run-heavy team that rarely turns the ball over, which is not a recipe for success for the opposing DST.
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