2022 Super Bowl Odds: Drafting Chiefs, Bucs, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Cowboys, NFL Playoff Teams For Value
Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Bucs QB Tom Brady
In honor of the 2022 NFL playoffs kicking off, we asked seven of our top NFL experts — six of whom are the brains behind our NFL PRO Projections — to draft all 14 contenders based on their odds to win Super Bowl LVI.
The kicker? Their picks had to be based on the betting value available at each point in the draft, not necessarily which teams they believe are most likely to win it. Of course, betting "value" is subjective, which is why our experts also made supporting argument for each of their picks.
Now let's recap the draft results then dive right into our experts' cases for each pick.
Note: Odds via DraftKings and as of Monday.
2022 Super Bowl Odds Draft
| Pick | Expert | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Koerner | Packers +400 |
| 2 | Travis Reed | Cowboys +1200 |
| 3 | Raheem Palmer | Chiefs +500 |
| 4 | Simon Hunter | Titans +750 |
| 5 | Chris Raybon | Bucs +850 |
| 6 | Brandon Anderson | 49ers +2000 |
| 7 | Stuckey | Bills +700 |
| 8 | Stuckey | Rams +1000 |
| 9 | Anderson | Patriots +2000 |
| 10 | Raybon | Cardinals +1800 |
| 11 | Hunter | Bengals +2000 |
| 12 | Palmer | Raiders +5000 |
| 13 | Reed | Eagles +6600 |
| 14 | Koerner | Steelers +6600 |
New to betting? The Packers' +400 odds to win the 2022 Super Bowl mean a $100 bet would net a $400 profit if they win the Lombardi Trophy. Use our Betting Odds Calculator to convert odds into probabilities and more.
1. Packers +400
Sean Koerner: I decided to go with the Packers +400 at No. 1 since I'm projecting their fair price closer to +350. It's incredible they were able to finish as the 1-seed despite having so many key players like the following miss time at various points this season: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, Za'Darius Smith and David Bakhtiari.
They should be close to 100% strength following their first-round bye and Lambeau Field should provide them significant home-field advantage in January.
2. Cowboys +1200
Travis Reed: I wanted to lean on my model's simulation results while also using my own opinions. My model's simulations have the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl about 10% of the time, so there's some value there mathematically.
I also think that Dallas’ ceiling is as high as any NFL team. There were times during the season when the offense looked great, and times when the defense looked unstoppable. If the stars align and they both happen for a few games, the Cowboys could easily wind up champions.
3. Chiefs +500
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs appeared to be the best value with the Packers and Cowboys off the board.
Ideally I’d like to choose a team with a first-round bye in their conference as they have to win only two games to make the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, with Sean selecting the Packers +400 and me not believing the Titans would be a favorite over the Bills or Chiefs at home, I selected the Chiefs as I believe they’re the best team in the AFC.
The Chiefs are also the biggest wild-card favorite on the board, laying 12 points against a Steelers team that has a -55 point differential and is second-worst among all playoff teams (check real-time NFL odds here). Although the game still has to be played on the field, on paper, the Chiefs essentially have a bye week. And as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, they’ll have a home game in the Divisional Round, meaning they would likely be favored against their next opponent.
4. Titans +750
Simon Hunter: Luckily I had an easy choice with the Titans +750 falling to me. They have my model's second-highest grade to reach the Super Bowl behind the Packers. Rarely is a 1-seed is so disrespected, but we'll take the value — they need to win just two home games to reach the Super Bowl.
With Derrick Henry back with fresh legs and the team coming off a week of rest, the Titans are posed for a deep playoff run.
5. Bucs +850
Chris Raybon: The Bucs +850 were an easy choice for me. They have a relatively easy first-round matchup versus the Eagles, will get to play the Divisional Round at home, and are capable of winning in Lambeau Field as we saw last season.
At this moment, I would also have the Bucs favored against any AFC team they would face in the Super Bowl.
We might be getting a slight discount here because of the Bucs losing Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, which does make them more fragile. But in Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, they still have more elite-level pass catchers than the Packers, and just as many as many of the other NFC contenders. The Bucs also have Tom Brady, who has reached the Super Bowl in nearly half (10-of-21) of his pro seasons and won in one-third of them while the odds imply just a 10.5% of the Bucs going all the way.
6. 49ers +2000
Brandon Anderson: Our draft order was random, but the sixth pick was the perfect draw for me as I ended up getting two of my top three values on my board. (The Bucs are the No. 1 value for me, but the Patriots and 49ers are next, and the Chiefs were the only other team on my board with positive value.)
I actually have New England higher than San Francisco with the odds here, but some game theory at No. 6 meant I was pretty confident Stuckey wouldn’t take both Buffalo and New England, leaving me the Pats for my second pick.
I already wrote a full article heading into Week 18 on why I love the 49ers’ odds this postseason. I grabbed them at +2500 to win the NFC and +5000 to win the Super Bowl then. Those odds have dropped precipitously, but I still think there’s value, and the value is because they're as good as the top-five NFC teams but also unique by style of play.
Four of the top five seeds struggle against the run, and the Niners have the number of the fifth, so I feel good about their matchup in all three games to get to the Super Bowl. Their power run game behind Trent Williams and George Kittle will help them control the clock and game flow. I love the second-round matchup against the Packers, too.
7. Bills +700
8. Rams +1000
Stuckey: These were pretty easy decisions for me to make with back-to-back picks and two of my top-five power rated teams still on the board. Plus, I just don’t think any of the other remaining eight teams have any real legitimate shot.
Seven of the other eight have quarterbacks making their first ever playoff start this weekend while the other is a way-past-his-prime Ben Roethlisberger on a Steelers team that has little-to-no-chance of even getting out of the Wild Card Round.
The Bills remain my only Super Bowl future from the start of the season and I think the AFC comes down to a likely rematch of them and Chiefs in Kansas City in the Divisional Round.
The Rams have stumbled down the stretch, but still have enough talent and coaching to make a run in the NFC, especially considering they built a roster to specifically battle the upper echelon of the conference. Matthew Stafford has to turn around his recent struggles for the Rams to make a run, but the potential is there.
I like that I have two Super Bowl-caliber quarterbacks with playoff experience on teams kicking things off against quarterbacks making their first postseason starts. Historically, those matchups have tilted heavily in the favor of experienced signal callers. I like both teams to advance to next weekend, then anything is possible in a year with as much parity as any I can remember.
9. Patriots +2000
Anderson: I think the Patriots may have even more value than the 49ers. There are exactly two AFC teams I fear on any level — New England plays one of them to kick off the postseason (Buffalo), and Bill Belichick has matched up well against the other (Kansas City) in the past. Belichick is just such a massive weapon as an underdog. His teams can win so many different ways, and both the Bills and Chiefs have been vulnerable as favorites.
The Pats' run game and awesome defense will keep games low-scoring and close, then all those little Belichick edges add up fast. I especially love that the Titans are ripe for the picking, and since that's almost certainly the second-round matchup, that's extra value.
If you like them against the Bills, there’s really only one serious threat standing in the Patriots’ way before the Super Bowl. Belichick and that defense will give them a shot.
10. Cardinals +1800
Raybon: My second choice came down to the Cardinals versus the Bengals. While I think the Bengals have an easier path in the AFC than the Cardinals do in the NFC, the Bengals’ underlying metrics don’t fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender as much as the Cardinals’ do.
For one, the Bengals ranked 30th in Football Outsiders' overall DVOA last season (the Cardinals ranked 13th), and we never see teams at the bottom of the league complete a massive turnaround and win the Super Bowl — even if that team wins a playoff game or two.
Secondly, the Bengals’ underlying metrics are decidedly average this season: They rank 17th in overall DVOA, 18th on offense, and 19th on defense while the Cardinals rank 10th overall, 15th on offense, and sixth on defense.
The Cardinals beat the 49ers (twice), Rams (one-out-of-two) and Cowboys this season, and could (and should) have beat the Packers, losing by three points on a miscommunication that resulted in an interception in the end zone. Kyler Murray’s mobility also makes them dangerous in a potential showdown with the Bucs.
11. Bengals +2000
Hunter: This is a pure value pick. The Bengals had the lowest odds left, and of all the quarterbacks left, I felt the most confident in Joe Burrow.
12. Raiders +5000
Palmer: With just the Raiders, Eagles and Steelers left, the Raiders were by far the best option with them coming into this game winners of three straight.
The Raiders come into their wild-card game against the Bengals taking sharp action, which pushed this line from the opener of +6.5 to where it currently sits at +5.5 (we track sharp action in our NFL PRO Report). Sharp money seems to believe the Raiders have a real shot against the Bengals as the final score of these teams' Week 11 matchup wasn’t indicative of the actual gameplay.
Nonetheless, with the Raiders being 5-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS) as an underdog of three or more points, they seem the most likely to advance out of the three remaining teams.
At +5000, there’s small value, but I wouldn’t play this in real life.
13. Eagles +6600
Reed: The Eagles and Steelers both stink, but the Eagles stink less. I'll trust Jalen Hurts' legs over Big Ben's arm at this point in his career.
14. Steelers +6600
Koerner: I was forced to take the Steelers at the end of the draft, but I would need to be offered at least +20000 odds to even consider taking them to win it all.
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