The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) and Los Angeles Rams (8-2) meet in the Week 12 edition of Sunday Night Football on November 23. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Rams are favored by -7 on the spread over the Buccaneers (Rams -7; -115), with the over/under set at 49.5. The Rams are -360 favorites to win outright on the moneyline while the Buccaneers are +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Buccaneers vs Rams predictions.
Buccaneers vs Rams Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Rams pick: Buccaneers +7 (to +6)
My Buccaneers vs Rams best bet is Buccaneers +7, with the best price currently available at +7 (+100) at ESPN Bet. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Rams Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Buccaneers vs Rams Sunday Night Football Preview
This is a good buy-low spot on the Bucs after they fell to 6-4 with a double-digit loss to the Bills, while the Rams won their fifth straight to improve to 8-2.
The Buccaneers offense is trending up thanks to the improved health of Baker Mayfield — who had gone three straight weeks without a rushing attempt before posting 5-39-1 last week.
Not just that, but offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke as well, who rank sixth and 18th among 77 qualified tackles at PFF but have appeared in just two games together due to injuries.
Mayfield leads all quarterbacks in Expected Points Added Per Rush (0.094), which is something the Rams haven't had to deal with much on their winning streak, spending most of their snaps against the likes of Cooper Rush, Mac Jones, Tyler Shough and Sam Darnold.
Bucky Irving (shoulder) remains out, but the emergence of Sean Tucker (140 scrimmage yards, 3 TDs last week), coupled with Mayfield's, gives the Buccaneers added balance on offense.
The Rams lost a key defender last week in safety Quentin Lake (IR-elbow). He had played every defensive snap up until that point, earning a PFF grade of 75.5 (13th of 75 qualified safeties), while aligning at slot corner, box safety, deep safety and on the edge.
Among qualified safeties, Lake ranks first in pass breakups (7), second in lowest average depth of tackle against the run (3.3), and tied for sixth in pass-rush pressures (7).
Though the Rams picked off Darnold four times, they still needed a missed field goal at the buzzer to escape with a two-point win while getting outgained 414-249.
The Rams have leaned into 12 and 13 personnel as of late, but it may not be as effective tonight given the Bucs' strength against the run.
Todd Bowles' defense ranks first in EPA per Rush versus 13 personnel (-0.53) and seventh in EPA per Rush versus 12 personnel (-0.15), while Sean McVay's offense rushes 66.1% of the time in 13 and 60.1% of the time in 12. Their heavy personnel also takes a hit with starting right tackle Rob Havenstein and TE1 Tyler Higbee both landing on the IR with ankle injuries.
The Rams are technically better offensively than the Bills, but being able to stop the run against heavy and against a quarterback who doesn't scramble should make this defense look a whole lot better than a week ago.
McVay may opt to revert to more 11 personnel to better exploit the absence of CB Jamel Dean (hip), who has allowed a passer rating of 28.2, best in the NFL.
Dean is a big loss — and a big reason why the Bucs are No. 3 in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers — but they are still No. 3 in EPA/pass allowed against 11 personnel, No. 3 in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers, and No. 5 versus tight ends.
Buccaneers vs Rams Prediction, Betting Analysis
According to our Action Labs data, the Rams are 18-29 (38%) against the spread (ATS) when coming off of a multi-game winning streak under McVay, with the fade producing a 19% ROI.
Per Action Labs, the Buccaneers are 15-9 (63%) ATS for a 20% ROI as a 'dog with Baker Mayfield.
The Rams don't have much of a home-field advantage in SoFi. Clay Martin getting the referee assignment won't do them any favors.
Per Action Labs, underdogs in games refereed by Martin are 75-44-1 (62%) ATS for a 21% ROI, including 45-19 (70%) ATS with a 36% ROI on the road.
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Author's note:If you're not on board with the side (or even if you are), note that I'm showing value on all three Rams tight ends' anytime TD odds.
I suspect we'll see a bit more 11 personnel than in recent weeks, but Higbee out of the picture still boosts Davis Allen (+425), Colby Parkinson (+475), and Terrance Ferguson (+525), the latter of whom will likely see the biggest uptick in red-zone routes, as Allen and Parkinson were already featured in that area.
Spread
My pick is the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
Moneyline
The Bucs are a live 'dog here: Per our Action Labs data, Tampa Bay has gone 8-8 straight-up as a road 'dog with Mayfield for a 34% ROI.
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total.
