Titans vs. Chiefs Sharp Pick: How Pros Are Betting the AFC Championship Spread

Titans vs. Chiefs Sharp Pick: How Pros Are Betting the AFC Championship Spread article feature image
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Pictured: Tennessee Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)

  • The updated AFC Championship spread is Chiefs -7 vs. Titans heading into the final hour before kickoff.
  • Find out how sharps played a role in moving the odds for Sunday's AFC title game and which side of the spread they're buying.

Can Mike Vrabel’s Titans win three straight playoff games as road underdogs against teams that appear much better than them on paper? We shall see, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. aren’t going down without a fight — they proved that last week with their absurd comeback win over the Texans.

There’s plenty of angles to dissect in this game, but as always, sharp action is one that you’ll want to keep in mind when betting this game yourself.

Here’s how the big bettors are influencing this spread.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs Sharp Pick

3:05 p.m. ET | CBS

As of late Saturday night, we have tracked exactly zero Bet Signals on this game. Bet Signals indicate waves of sharp activity hitting the market, and to be honest, it’s actually a pretty rare occurrence to see none of them. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean there’s zero sharp activity on this game whatsoever.

If we check our betting percentages, we can see that the Titans, who have been seriously impressive in their wins over New England and Baltimore, are getting just 37% of spread bets (see live public betting data here). Kind of surprising considering they opened at +7.5.

Our percentages also reveal that those 37% of bets account for 43% of the money. While a 6% differential may not seem like that much, it is in a game like this.

Would a 6% differential a big deal in Sunday’s UMKC-Grand Canyon college basketball game? No, considering next to nobody will be betting on it.

In  games like this, though, we’re talking about huge numbers of tickets and huge sums of money. Six percent is worth, well, more than your whole life.

The line movement proves that, as books aren’t moving from +7.5 to +7 — an incredibly important move in the NFL — with Tennessee getting less than 40% of bets unless there’s a good reason.

Books aren’t looking to even out the money on each side, which is a common misconception. They’ll stay put even if one side is getting the large majority of public action if they think they’re on the right side. However, they will move the lines if sharp, respected bettors are hitting it, which is just what we have here.

Sharp Angle: Titans (moved from +7.5 to +7)

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